The Irish political system has been remarkably resilient and stable, and I don't expect a revolution or a left/right split on the European model any time soon. But their has been a consistent long-term decline in the Fianna Fail base in any case - from their 50%+ vote in 1979 to c. 40% in recent elections and less than 30% if current opinion polls are actually realised at the polls.
However the PDs, Sinn Fein and the Greens are also imploding somewhat - so there is a huge vacuum for someone to fill - hopefully not by some demagogue playing on people's fears. In the short term I would see this being filled largely by Fine Gael - and then by Labour as Fine Gael inevitably fail to address the core issues. But its all to play for. notes from no w here
The problem with Fine Gael is that they are almost "owned" by big business and the professional classes - and these are the quasi-monopoly operators who are really increasing our economic and social cost base at the moment.
But whilst I see Labour also being a major beneficiary in the short term, and perhaps the major beneficiary going forward, I don't see a huge ideological transformation of the country happening just yet.
People are looking for scapegoats - the banks obviously, and the Government - perhaps even the Eurozone a la McWilliams. But blame the Irish elite? Never! notes from no w here
I'm not sure I buy your contention that it's the professional classes what done it - and in most their income seems to have taken a pretty serious hit from the recession as far as I can tell. Probably much more serious than most middle earners (except those who lost jobs).
Isn't that prima facie evidence that it's them who dun it? En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Who benefitted from the bubble while it was going on? If your income is strongly correlated with asset prices you will benefit when there is a bubble and hurt in the crash. You will also have a short-term incentive to encourage a bubble. You are likely to favour policies which will lead to bubbles. The professional class is also better politically connected than other classes (and lots of the politicians are professionals) and so they have a disproportionate amoutn of political influence. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Have bank managers -other than top executives - taken a hit, have Barristers reduced their fees? Have Medical consultants or even your local GP? Half a million Euro p.a. is not unusual for a consultant - half of that from the Government for a part time job. Even top civil servants have managed to largely reverse the planned budget cut whilst junior civil servants take the full hit. These guys were earning way more that their EU counterparts in most instances, and indirectly they effect the cost of living and doing business here for everyone else.
Are Fine Gael going to socialise private medicine - never. Will labour? - not at the moment. notes from no w here
The whole medical system is a mess, and it's not cleat to me what good "competition" is going to do.
If you want to reduce the total cost of the medical system, you will have to socialise it, but as it stands our private system is damaging the competitiveness of the rest of the economy by creating huge costs for all that have to be reflected in wages and the cost of doing business. notes from no w here
My experience of solicitors at the mo. is that they are making work for themselves by abusing the legal system by maximising legal obscurantism.
That would be business as usual for corporate lawyers - and many other kinds of lawyers too.
When you're being paid a few hundred an hour for playing with your pencils and designing incomprehensible sentences, there's no particular incentive to be clear, concise and straightforward.
Of course this runs counter to the prevailing ideology, so here we are. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Your imagination is the limit.
Perhaps on the balance sheet of another company. Usually on the balance sheet of a Special Purpose Entity (SPE). Your company's shareholders perhaps know it, perhaps not.
do you mean "creative accounting"? I prefer to call it "financial engineering".
Anyway, you can't fault the Irish for not trying it on... notes from no w here
So much pressure to reform accounting standards to reflect mark-to-market and it had to come to this... En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Once the economy starts recovering it will be time to reduce public spending and raise taxes by 3% and more, not while the economy is still in a nosedive. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Debt to GDP ratios be damned (assuming the debt is used to return the economy to a normal level of activity)
Normally I would agree but:
I don't think going back to a debt/GDP ration of c.100% is a good idea. ... Irish public and private foreign debt is c. 800% GDP, so we are huge over-leveraged as it is.
...
Irish public and private foreign debt is c. 800% GDP, so we are huge over-leveraged as it is.
The question is whether the ECB can and will be a lender of last resort to Irish banks. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
