Last year, I toyed with the idea: the longer the period without a severe earthquake before the introduction of multi-storied (concrete) constructions, the worse the damage of the first severe earthqake.
I played with this in relation to (underestimated) earthquake risks in Europe when L'Aquila, Italy, got struck last year - never got around to diarize it.
1906 San Francisco Earthquake - Centennial
The geological forces developed by an earthquake are immense, see the Indonesian quake followed by a tsunami on Christmas in 2004. Between the planets, the moon and our sun are gravitational forces. Our moon causes the phenomena of tides in our oceans. Is there sufficient effect to cause a trigger for an earthquake? My thought, the tectonic plates are set to slide, the moment gets closer to cause an earth tremor or quake. Is the extra gravitational force during a solar-eclipse sufficient to cause the plates to slide? I have always wondered about that, looking for an answer.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
While nothing as large as 1906 has occurred (that was estimated to be 7.5-8 in magnitude, aka enormous) there have been several 6+ earthquakes in the region including the 7.0 quake in 1989. These as well as other quakes in California in that time have led to damages and subsequent changes in construction and safety requirements. A 1906-sized earthquake would cause great damage even today but it would look nothing like what you find in Haiti.
Now, there is a lunar tide, and there is a solar tide. Both mean an oval stress/deformation of the Earth's shape relative to perfect rotational symmetry, which is moving because the Earth's angular rate of rotation and the Moon's orbital speed around the Earth resp. the Earth's around the Sun aren't identical.
Twice every month, when the Sun and Earth and Moon are on the same line -- whether there is a solar or a lunar eclipse, or neither (when the Moon is at a higher inclination) --, the lunar and solar tides are on top of each other. However, the solar tide being smaller, it is not much stronger than the normal twice-daily lunar tide. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
For the question "is the variation in gravitational force large enough to cause tectonic plates to slide?" there are actually hints that they could, even when the gravitational force is negigible in comparison to the muscular power play between plates. The best place for this is to look at the San Andreas fault zone, which is the world's best playground for understanding earthquakes and stress build-up.
There were already strong indications that very large quakes can trigger other severe quakes at the other end of a tectonic plate with a variable time delay. In other words, one heavy quake can be "teleconnected" to another. Recently a Nature publication appeared on the effect of the tides:
Though tides raised in the Earth by the sun and moon are not known to trigger earthquakes directly, they can trigger swarms of deep tremors, which could increase the likelihood of quakes on the fault above the tremor zone, the researchers say. At other fault zones, such as at Cascadia, swarms of tremors in the ductile zone deep underground correlate with slip at depth as well as increased stress on the shallower "seismogenic zone," where earthquakes are generated. The situation on the San Andreas Fault is not so clear, however. "These tremors represent slip along the fault 25 kilometers (15 miles) underground, and this slip should push the fault zone above in a similar pattern," Bürgmann said. "But it seems like it must be very subtle, because we actually don't see a tidal signal in regular earthquakes. Even though the earthquake zone also sees the tidal stress and also feels the added periodic behavior of the tremor below, they don't seem to be very bothered." Nevertheless, said Nadeau, "It is certainly in the realm of reasonable conjecture that tremors are stressing the fault zone above it. The deep San Andreas Fault is moving faster when tremors are more active, presumably stressing the seismogenic zone, loading the fault a little bit faster. And that may have a relationship to stimulating earthquake activity."
"These tremors represent slip along the fault 25 kilometers (15 miles) underground, and this slip should push the fault zone above in a similar pattern," Bürgmann said. "But it seems like it must be very subtle, because we actually don't see a tidal signal in regular earthquakes. Even though the earthquake zone also sees the tidal stress and also feels the added periodic behavior of the tremor below, they don't seem to be very bothered."
Nevertheless, said Nadeau, "It is certainly in the realm of reasonable conjecture that tremors are stressing the fault zone above it. The deep San Andreas Fault is moving faster when tremors are more active, presumably stressing the seismogenic zone, loading the fault a little bit faster. And that may have a relationship to stimulating earthquake activity."
There you go. :)
But when an unprepared city gets struck dead-centre by a 7.0+ magnitude earthquake, the damage will be colossal no matter what.
I am not a seismologist, so the succeeding may be complete nonsense, but I do have the uncanny suspicion that there are a number of areas in Europe with 20 century buildings that have not been adequately "tested" by destructive earthquakes - simply because these earthquakes haven't occurred yet, while there is a probability that they could. Architectural adaptation is employed with hindsight, plus the memory of man forgets too quickly.
Jenes an sich schon unsichere Gefüge mußte, von der ungeheuern Erschütterung aufgelöst und zerbröckelt, zusammenstürzen; wie man denn unter manchen bei so großem Unglück vorgekommenen wunderbaren Rettungen auch folgendes erzählt: der Bewohner eines solchen Gebäudes sei im furchtbaren Augenblick gerade in die Mauervertiefung eines Fensters getreten, das Haus aber hinter ihm völlig zusammengestürzt; und so habe er, in der Höhe gerettet, den Augenblick seiner Befreiung aus diesem luftigen Kerker beruhigt abgewartet.
The 1755 Lisbon earthquake, also known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake, took place on 1 November 1755, at around 10:24 in the morning.[1] The earthquake was followed by a tsunami and fires, which caused near-total destruction of Lisbon in the Kingdom of Portugal, and adjoining areas. Geologists today estimate the Lisbon earthquake approached magnitude 9 on the Moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter in the Atlantic Ocean about 200 km (120 mi) west-southwest of Cape St. Vincent. Estimates place the death toll in Lisbon alone between 10,000 and 100,000 people,[2] making it one of the most destructive earthquakes in history. The earthquake accentuated political tensions in the Kingdom of Portugal and profoundly disrupted the country's eighteenth-century colonial ambitions. The event was widely discussed and dwelt upon by European Enlightenment philosophers, and inspired major developments in theodicy and in the philosophy of the sublime. As the first earthquake studied scientifically for its effects over a large area, it led to the birth of modern seismology and earthquake engineering.
The earthquake accentuated political tensions in the Kingdom of Portugal and profoundly disrupted the country's eighteenth-century colonial ambitions. The event was widely discussed and dwelt upon by European Enlightenment philosophers, and inspired major developments in theodicy and in the philosophy of the sublime. As the first earthquake studied scientifically for its effects over a large area, it led to the birth of modern seismology and earthquake engineering.