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Too early to say. Technically speaking, it's still only 1930.

Exactly.  FDR took office in 1933.  Do not underestimate what three years of suffering can do to people's attitudes.  As I said - he had a very different political environment from the one Obama inherited.  And Obama is taking steps to avert COMPLETE collapse, such as what happened after 1930.  Seems to me to be working, but as you say, only time will tell.  Perhaps we still do have a 25% unemployment rate, several million homeless, and whole towns having armed standoffs with authorities to keep their property in our future, but I doubt it.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 24th, 2010 at 06:18:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Using the definitions used during the 1930s we currently have very close to 20% unemployment.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jan 24th, 2010 at 09:37:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can believe that, AR, but, without veering into a huge argument about statistics, I'll restate that the conditions 'on the ground' the political climate, if you will, is still far different.  

Even now, the political climate is much different from what it was 3 years ago, even 1 year ago.  And how many percentage points has unemployment changed?  I just don't think there's any way anyone who's read about conditions during the depression can possibly argue in good faith that conditions in 2009 are comparable to conditions in 1933.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 24th, 2010 at 10:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Political climate worsening: granted. Money expended to create a worsted political climate: far from priceless. That is the essence of my concern about Obama Administration policy from the inauguration till, hopefully, last week.

But if Obama indeed gets behind this new policy with all his ability I think he can make a real difference. Perhaps the most important thing he could do would be to conduct a series of tutorials from the oval office that serve to educate the population as to how the economic system really operates. how the theories currently being used obscures that operation and to whom the benefit accrues. The other thing is to make the argument for public financing of federal elections. Even the business people are making that plea now. Even if such a policy has to be pushed through in budget reconciliation it could save the country from perpetual corporate rule. Else, the concern is that business contributions for Democrats, let alone progressives will dry up. And the vast majority of that corporate money will not be supporting Obama or the Democrats. But the hour is late.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jan 25th, 2010 at 11:45:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure Obama actually has taken sufficient steps to avert complete collapse and, unfortunately, has limited political room to maneuver due to some unfortunate dithering on the part of his direct reports and his own party in house and senate.

I believe you are in California, so you perhaps have noticed that there are whole towns which sit empty.  And, you probably know this as well, the number of homeless has grown, and sits at around 3.5 million in the US (and growing) while thanks to Clinton's Welfare "Reform," about 6 million folks get no aid from the Federal government other than foostamps.

The Obama administration's solutions to these frankly morally rotten problems was advertised as the stimulus plan, which his Council of Econ Advisors chair now admits was only an insurance policy to "avoid a catastrophe," not a policy necessarily to get people back to work, so this is why, at least on the left, the stimulus plan has been criticized as too little, a tactical mistake. I mean, when you're historic first black President of the US and you lose Bob Herbert after only a year, it's saying something. And not that you're doing a good job.

See, unfortunately, these millions of Americans living from hand to mouth and in highly precarious housing situations have no one looking out for them. Many thought this would change, and are unhappy to see that they haven't, and I can't say I blame them, though I certainly did not expect changes, which is why I live where I live.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Mon Jan 25th, 2010 at 03:08:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Too early to say. Technically speaking, it's still only 1930.

Exactly.  FDR took office in 1933.

So Obama might be a Hoover? Except that he'll be followed not by an FDR but by a Republican with a tighter "fiscal responsibility" agenda and "small government" ideology. If this is what we're looking at, it's going to be a disaster.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 25th, 2010 at 05:11:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So Obama might be a Hoover?

That wasn't the point of the comment.  The point was that the environment Obama inherited wasn't the same one FDR inherited.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 25th, 2010 at 05:23:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, he inherited a better one.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 25th, 2010 at 05:26:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And Obama inherited an economy in which the major indicators track with eerie precision those from 1929, with the exception of the stock market, which appears to have been levitated for the benefit of Wall Street with Quantative Easing money from the Fed. The other exception to the chart comparison between today and 1929 is that many current charts have dropped further and faster than those of 1929, despite the economic stabilizers such as Social Security, Medicare, WIC, Food Stamps and Unemployment Insurance.

Given that Obama's economic team are, while guided by false lights, not total fools and must have seen the same charts, it is hard to see optimism about a recovery as other than disingenuous happy talk and spin--which is blowing back on them and Obama.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jan 25th, 2010 at 12:30:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, he inherited a better one.

omg - that was my POINT!  

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 03:13:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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