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Federal Reserve policy makers may want Americans to expect inflation to accelerate in the future so they spend more of their money now. Central bankers, seeking ways to boost flagging growth after lowering interest rates almost to zero and buying $1.7 trillion of securities, are weighing strategies for raising inflation expectations as well as expanding the balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries, according to minutes of the Fed's Sept. 21 meeting released yesterday. Some Fed officials are concerned that expectations of lower inflation will become self-fulfilling, damping demand by increasing borrowing costs in real terms, the minutes said. By encouraging Americans to believe prices will start rising at a faster pace, the Fed would reduce inflation-adjusted interest rates and stimulate the economy. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in 2003 that Japan could beat deflation by using a "publicly announced, gradually rising price-level target."
Federal Reserve policy makers may want Americans to expect inflation to accelerate in the future so they spend more of their money now.
Central bankers, seeking ways to boost flagging growth after lowering interest rates almost to zero and buying $1.7 trillion of securities, are weighing strategies for raising inflation expectations as well as expanding the balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries, according to minutes of the Fed's Sept. 21 meeting released yesterday.
Some Fed officials are concerned that expectations of lower inflation will become self-fulfilling, damping demand by increasing borrowing costs in real terms, the minutes said. By encouraging Americans to believe prices will start rising at a faster pace, the Fed would reduce inflation-adjusted interest rates and stimulate the economy. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in 2003 that Japan could beat deflation by using a "publicly announced, gradually rising price-level target."
The cries of pain now heard around the world, as markets push currencies up against the dollar, partly reflect the uneven impact of US policy. Still more, they reflect the stubborn unwillingness to accept the needed changes, with each capital recipient trying to deflect the unwanted adjustment elsewhere. To put it crudely, the US wants to inflate the rest of the world, while the latter is trying to deflate the US. The US must win, since it has infinite ammunition: there is no limit to the dollars the Federal Reserve can create. What needs to be discussed is the terms of the world's surrender: the needed changes in nominal exchange rates and domestic policies around the world.If you wish to understand how aggressive US policy might become, read a recent speech by William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He notes that "in recent quarters the pace of growth has been disappointing even relative to our modest expectations at the start of the year". Behind this lies deleveraging by US households, in particular. So what can monetary policy do about it? His answer is that "very low interest rates can help smooth the adjustment process by supporting asset valuations, including making housing more affordable and by allowing some borrowers to reduce debt interest payments. Beyond this ... to the extent that monetary policy can `cut off the tail' of the distribution of potential adverse economic outcomes ... it can help encourage those households and businesses with money to spend to do so".
The cries of pain now heard around the world, as markets push currencies up against the dollar, partly reflect the uneven impact of US policy. Still more, they reflect the stubborn unwillingness to accept the needed changes, with each capital recipient trying to deflect the unwanted adjustment elsewhere.
To put it crudely, the US wants to inflate the rest of the world, while the latter is trying to deflate the US. The US must win, since it has infinite ammunition: there is no limit to the dollars the Federal Reserve can create. What needs to be discussed is the terms of the world's surrender: the needed changes in nominal exchange rates and domestic policies around the world.
If you wish to understand how aggressive US policy might become, read a recent speech by William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He notes that "in recent quarters the pace of growth has been disappointing even relative to our modest expectations at the start of the year". Behind this lies deleveraging by US households, in particular. So what can monetary policy do about it? His answer is that "very low interest rates can help smooth the adjustment process by supporting asset valuations, including making housing more affordable and by allowing some borrowers to reduce debt interest payments. Beyond this ... to the extent that monetary policy can `cut off the tail' of the distribution of potential adverse economic outcomes ... it can help encourage those households and businesses with money to spend to do so".
By encouraging Americans to believe prices will start rising at a faster pace, the Fed would reduce inflation-adjusted interest rates and stimulate the economy.
Wait - what? Inflation goes up, real purchasing power decreases, people borrow more from bankrupt banks that aren't lending to make up the gap, the economy grows?
Is this a plan or a comedy sketch?
BruceMcF:
A structural imbalance of the external accounts is part of the story in all the hyperinflationary episodes that I can bring to mind, with notable examples from the Confederate States of America in the 1860's through the Wiemar Republic, through Brazil in the 1970's, through Argentina at the turn of this century.
I don't think we can predict what the US finance industry will look like at the end (although I'd be willing to bet Goldman sachs do well) but I really doubt they're gonna be in any position to protect the dollar at the end of it. keep to the Fen Causeway
Where's the downside? It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
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