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Were oil to go back well over $100/bl., were China to retaliate for newly imposed import restrictions on their goods by dumping US$ reserves and were the Fed to persist in an externally directed QE strategy things might get out of hand. I don't think it is wise to totally discount such a possibility, especially if you want to guard against it.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 14th, 2010 at 11:55:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
oil would go to, say, $120 fairly mechanically. China would be forced to re-evaluate against the $, the American way of life would be very negotiable indeed... a real Marshall plan for alternative energy...

Where's the downside?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Oct 15th, 2010 at 04:21:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Where's the downside?" -- likely will depend on where you live. In the USA the downside would be the consequences of allowing the existing financial sector to continue to squeeze the life out of the rest of the economy while we attempt to transition to a more sustainable energy regime. And German industry, especially, would not be too happy with the super strong euro, though no doubt many unemployed Germans would take great pride in its strength. So you might well see the ECB engaging in massive "easing" of its own. Hello competitive devaluations.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 15th, 2010 at 02:01:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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