Display:
First, Spain in the only country in the world where electricity production and distribution are conducted by separate entities.

No, but perhaps the first and most radical. This was actually EU policy, but IIRC it was successfully hollowed out recently.

one of the things that the Spanish did is set up a schedule of priority for electric production

That's less a grid owner side decision, more a consequence of Spain's feed-in law. Wind has similar priority in other EU members with high wind penetration, notably Denmark and Germany. The Spanish grid monopoly combined with an actual government energy policy is certainly a better construction than that of Germany, where the big formerly local monopolist producers still own the grid, and renewables producers had to sue them on the basis of the feed-in law if they tried to deny access.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 02:20:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My understanding was that it was the only case.  At the very least, the idea far predates Spanish participation in the EU. It was created in 1985, before Spanish EU membership.  

Red Eléctrica was the first company in the world dedicated exclusively to power transmission and the operation of electrical systems. A pioneer in its field, the company occupies a position of leadership today in these activities.

When it was created in 1985, it took over the transmission grid and the operation of the Spanish power system, well before the recent world-wide trend towards the segregation of activities, establishing transmission as a separate activity from generation and distribution. This marked a radical change in how the Spanish power sector operated and served as a model for other countries when liberalising their power sectors.

I understand that there is a push to independent system operators, but in the end the infrastructure is still owned by same companies that produce electricity.  

See my response above about the priority for wind energy.  It's separate from the issue of subsidies.  It is possible to have one but not the other.  I honestly don't know the specifics of the law in Germany and Denmark.  I only know that the growth of wind energy in Spain was much more impressive, and the period much more compressed.

According to EWEA figures, 1998-2008, wind capacity in Spain grew, on average, 37% annually.  In Germany, this figure was 25%. In Denmark, 9%. Virtually no capacity was added in Denmark between 2003-2008.  They hit a wall, or rather they ran out of land based sites.  Spanish annual growth continues to be in the double digits (in % terms.)  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 04:29:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Denmark did hit a wall.

The wall was called Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The Don Quixote of the Danish wind industry, as another ETer so aptly put it.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 05:24:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I checked and was surprised to find that he is only partially to blame: the switch to the failed certificates system (which in its final implementation killed on-shore) was decided in 2000 already.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 05:32:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It was created in 1985, before Spanish EU membership.

OK, I didn't know that. But you should be aware that it is not the only case: there was separation in California before the great (fake) California Energy Crisis, too. Within the EU, still predating the EU-level deregulation drive, England & Wales had it. Post-deregulation, the most notable separation of generation and grid (at least of those I am aware of) is Italy's.

In Denmark, 9%. Virtually no capacity was added in Denmark between 2003-2008.  They hit a wall, or rather they ran out of land based sites.

Nope. There was a government change. And the new government changed rules on purpose. Which was easier, given that unlike Germany and Spain, Denmark had no feed-in law (which obligates distributors to buy the generated wind electricity, in effect giving priority to wind).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 05:30:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are probably right about Rasmussen.  I don't know.  Site availablity was a factor.  Notice the growth offshore.  

The problem that I see with a feed in tariff is that this does nothing create a disincentive for use during peak periods.  So the policy is basically based on expanding supply instead of cutting demand.

The second thing is that wind is never going to be dispatchable in the same way that coal power, for example, is.  You can't just flip on a switch at will.  Which is why I think that it is important that wind energy be used before that back-up from coal and the like is called in.  

Those forms of energy are dispatchable, and by having a rate schedule that increases with increased use you create an incentive for conservation.  At the same time, this is dispatchable.  And, you can use the premium generated to fund a feed in tariff (subsidy) for renewables.  So that kills the back-up argument against wind power, and it creates a clever funding mechanism that encourages conservation.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 05:52:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Site availablity was a factor.

No, not when growth goes to zero. Which actually happened twice: first in 2002, then there was a special programme for repowering, which was such a success that it ashamed Rasmussen & co, but it was time-limited.

Notice the growth offshore.

The growth off-shore was a 25-year plan meted out nicely year-by-year by the SocDem government of the other Rasmussen in the nineties, with the aim to bring wind above 50% at least. However, in the early 2000s, Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that on-shore wind expansion was such a success that quotas for renewables have already been surpassed, so there is no need to continue with his predecessors' off-shore schedule -- and delayed further projects indefinitely while allowing the finishing of the two in-construction farms. Five years later, he was forced to re-think, and the next three projects were allowed to go ahead. The fun thing in all this was that it was all ideological: Denmark has two major semi-monopolist utilities that also own the grid [or at least that was the situation until a few years ago], both of which supported wind; and the gutting of the Danish wind market actually hurt Danish business interests: the wind manufacturers are big industry after all.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 06:10:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FYI.  I don't know that much about Denmark, but I know that in Spain Vestas got quite the surprise when Gamesa up and decided to become a major competitor.  Vestas didn't fully divest from Gamesa Eolica until 2002.  At that point, Vestas became a marginal player in the Spanish market. And they got quite a shock when Gamesa entered into other markets in Europe. Suddenly this company that their models got off the ground was a major competitor.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 06:20:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was not really a surprise to Vestas... Gamesa bought out the license it had from Vestas, so this was done with Vestas' consent, and in the clear knowledge that they'd compete on their own and likely take over a large portion of the Spanish market.

Spanish business is very protectionist, but in a much less open way than the French are - this is the reason why Gamesa got the license from Vestas in the first place - because otherwise Vestas couldn't have sold in the Spanish market.

Gamesa is still not that big outside of Spain or out of projects by Iberdrola and other Spanish investors.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 08:44:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was not really a surprise to Vestas... Gamesa bought out the license it had from Vestas, so this was done with Vestas' consent, and in the clear knowledge that they'd compete on their own and likely take over a large portion of the Spanish market.

That's interesting, because that's not the impression I got from newsarticles from the time.

Gamesa is still not that big outside of Spain or out of projects by Iberdrola and other Spanish investors.

I definitely get the Iberdrola connection.  I ran the numbers from the Spanish wind energy associations wind farm database.  I know that there are a number of small development corporations that develop a wind farm that aren't wholly owned by Iberdrola and Iberdrola Renewables.  But the relationship (in Spain) seems to be stronger in turns of the % of Gamesa turbines in Iberdrola projects, than in terms of the % of Iberdrola projects as a % of total Gamesa sales.  That was something I honed in on while I was writing.

What I'm most interested in is less a matter of the development of wind farm development than the relationship between Gamesa and the Basque regional government.  It's that political science thing.

I do appreciate getting some things about the distribution issues cleared up.  I know now that I need to go back through what I've written for my paper and change some things. The thesis was basically the importance of the Iberdrola-Gamesa relationship, and the role that the Basque government came in and had in terms of fostering the development of sectoral organizations like the energy cluster (cluster energia)


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 10:01:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sure you can draw some valid conclusions from the effect of the Basque government and Gamesa working to save industry in the region. But it's very hard to frame it globally, as you're trying.

Spain could almost be designated a captive market in wind for its own companies, like India.  Within that frame, with strong Iberdrola support, Gamesa became a power.  But Gamesa has had very limited success when moving to other markets.

Their entry into the US is particularly telling, as their technology was not up to other European standards.  Without the support of Iberdrola in the US, Gamesa would have a very hard time.  Despite strong relationships with Pennsylvania unions, and the use of converted factories there, Gamesa has had a very hard time finding equilibrium.

The problem of success stories from captive markets not being able to replicate that in more mature markets is not limited to Spain, though by starting small Acciona is certainly moving forward.  Suzlon's very tough and expensive entry into the US is a spectacular example of a company very successful, even controlling, of a particular market, yet having a very rocky entry into a more sophisticated market.  Suzlon is not out of the woods yet, and without its purchase of REpower would be even deeper in the hole.

The Basque offshore cluster is but a shadow of the North Sea - Baltic cluster, and will have virtually no influence outside of perhaps small Spanish development.  At this stage, there is no technology nor expertise replicable to the wider offshore space, Gamesa's 4.5 MW turbine notwithstanding.

Acciona and Gamesa have had tough times in China as well.  This is a symptom of coming from a captive market, where the bar is set lower, but is not recognized until higher standards are needed.  Smaller Acciona has the strategic advantage here because being smaller, they are able to adjust quicker with their very capable engineering.  (Im writing about the wind division, not the entire company.)

To get a clearer picture of the split between Gamesa and Vestas, and the longer-term results, might well take some more digging.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 05:51:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then again, entry into a foreign market is not only determined by the quality and price of the product and relationship with developers, see Enercon and the USA.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 05:57:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's finally a chink in the GE patent armor, as Mitsubishi won the latest round, that they are not infringing.  As part of their claim, they stated that GE's initial patent was not fairly awarded, which I'm sure pleased Enercon.  Enercon sits very comfortably north of the border in Canada, quietly nursing their top line reputation.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 06:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
By the way. What do you make of the market share stats on page 6 of the German 2009 stats? That jump of Enercon to 60% primarily at the expense of Vestas.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 10:00:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Amazing that Enercon can capture such a huge portion of a mature market.  Likely based upon performance and reputation, as well as an exceptional O&M infrastructure.  Unbelievable (actually, quite believable) that this technology is banned from the US because of patent infringement, when Enercon wrote the book on that technology as the first variable speed turbine.

i suspect in the coming years REpower will grow some, GE will really begin to capture market share with their new 2.5MW machine, Nordex should increase, and if Fuhrländer can increase production and marketing of the W2E turbine, they could cut into Enercon.  But it will be tough, and I wouldn't be surprised if GE focuses elsewhere.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 03:16:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem that I see with a feed in tariff is that this does nothing create a disincentive for use during peak periods.

It is true that electricity sold with a feed-in tariff caps the increase of market prices in peak periods, if that increase would otherwise exceed the feed-in tariff. When makret prices would stay below, of course it does the opposite. Either way, why do you want a disincentive in peak periods?

it is important that wind energy be used before that back-up from coal and the like is called in.

As I said two times now, a feed-in law does just that by obligating distributors to buy the wind electricity. That creates a priority, the other producers are forced to throttle production in high wind. That's exactly what happens in Spain and Northern Germany.

a feed in tariff (subsidy)

To expand on why there should be no equation: a feed-in tariff is a guaranteed purchase price. You can at best consider the difference between the tariff and the momentary market price the subsidy. (And it can actually be negative.) But even that is not really a subsidy, because in the end, it is not something paid from a public or private budget, but costs are spread out to customers (or eating away the profits of other producers).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 06:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

a feed in tariff (subsidy)

To expand on why there should be no equation: a feed-in tariff is a guaranteed purchase price. You can at best consider the difference between the tariff and the momentary market price the subsidy. (And it can actually be negative.) But even that is not really a subsidy, because in the end, it is not something paid from a public or private budget, but costs are spread out to customers (or eating away the profits of other producers).

Given that wind power lowers the marginal price when it blows, there is a merit order effect of supporting wind, which reduces prices for all producers at that time and creates savings for consumers. The aggregate value of that merit order effect has been measured in Denmark, Germany and Spain and is now larger than the net subsidy from the feed-in tariff.

In other words, the so-called "subsidy" to wind actually brings prices down for consumers!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 08:47:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Norway. The net effect is lower prices, but because Denmark has little investment in load following capacity (The bulk of the coal plants are heat and power, and thus, cannot be turned off or even significantly down in the current weather) most of the load balancing is done by norvegian hydro, which buys wind power low and sells water power back dear later. This is not a technical problem, or even a problem for its green credentials  - Water behind the norwegian dams is a limited resource, so to the extent that the number of electrons traded back and forth in this manner sum to zero, they do displace fossil fuels in the end, but since this is done via trading, the bulk of the savings are transferred to the customers of the norwegian utilities, while the subsidy is paid in DK.

Note that if "imports and exports balance" is key to making even the green argument: Norway has no significant fossil generation and will not build any under any circumstances, so net exports merely displace norwegian investment in carbon neutral power, which is not a gain, since the danish power sector is overall the worst CO2 emitter in europe.

by Thomas on Wed Feb 3rd, 2010 at 08:48:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The consumers in DK get the same lower prices than the consumers in NO. what you mean is that the existing suppliers in DK take a disproportionate hit on their revenues (losing high price production), while NO producers can take advantage of the new price patterns.

Which is as it should be, given that DK incumbents are largely coal-based.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2010 at 11:09:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The problem that I see with a feed in tariff is that this does nothing create a disincentive for use during peak periods.

Well, if wind is blowing at a peak period, it will alleviate the need for peaker plants to be turned on, thus turning that period into a "non-peak" one (at least in terms of system strain). and if it is not blowing, then the price will go up to very high levels and that creates disincentives for consumption as well as incentives for marginal producers.

The problem is that wholesale price peaks at times of system tension are usually not passed on to consumers, who have no idea they should save. So either you impose fully variable power prices to retail customers, in perfect market-driven fashion, to get consumers to change their behavior at times of high demand and thus high prices, or you find other ways to impose power savings (education, financing of energy saving devices and investments, technical standards for energy consuming goods and services, etc...)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 08:40:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that there is no "electricity market" for non-industrial consumers.

I'd accept paying a spot price the day my power outlet carried ticker quotations from various distributors and I could pick and choose between them. Maybe. But mostly, I'd really rather that it was treated as an infrastructure business without all that spot market nonsense.

Which is not to say that you can't make some kind of incentive system for the part of the middle load that follows a reasonably stable pattern across the day.

And/or you could improve building codes and energy standards in consumer products. Eliminating standby power in non-critical products (TVs, private computers, etc.) sounds like a good idea to me.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 02:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
actually, you can't just switch on coal, that's why coal too is base load. And even with combined cycle gas, the turbine needs to be in a sort of stand by mode to be able to go full load in a short period without shortening the life expectancy too much (and incurring higher O&M costs)

From what I have heard, this standby in Spain is sometimes not profitable anymore as the lucrative peak opportunities are less and less (and lower (!)), therefore owners of CCPP are actually thinking of shutting down their plants for good!

This brings up a whole new set of challanges...

by crankykarsten (cranky (where?) gmx dot organisation) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2010 at 07:34:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

owners of CCPP are actually thinking of shutting down their plants for good!

You know, I have trouble believing this. I could understand utilities being reluctant to invest in new gas-fired plants as they know the capacity factor will be less than required. But existing plants should used as long as it's cash-flow positive, and I don't see that it's not the case often enough to keep the plants spinning.

Do you have public data on this? Is this just political posturing by the utilities?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2010 at 11:05:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
probably a bit of both. I don't have any real data of a  CCPP in Spain incl the relevant price contracts/mechanisms (though maybe I can try to get some...?), this is only from converstations with people who have thought or are thinking of building CCPPs in Spain and muse about the current situation, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Sorry, should have made that clearer in my post.
by crankykarsten (cranky (where?) gmx dot organisation) on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 03:09:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
1998-2008, wind capacity in Spain grew, on average, 37% annually.  In Germany, this figure was 25%.

Annual installations peaked in Germany in 2002, in Spain in 2007. The growth curves were similar, that's a phase delay. But what both show is the superiority of feed-in laws over certification systems (as used in Denmark or the UK).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 05:45:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I still think that the Spanish win this one.  The industry cluster based in the northeast (read Bilbao) have diversified into a variety of other clean energy fields.  For example, Gamesa just test ran a 4.5 MW model that's probably meant for offshore.  This same cluster contains shipyards that are under a lot of stress.  When the initial burst of wind farm construction occurred in Spain, the Basques used their lead (Gamesa) in this area in order to resuscitate their ailing steel and machine tools industries.  It worked. They haven't expanded, but machine tool employment has held steady.  

I suspect that the plan is to do the same thing using the shipbuilding cluster with offshore work.  Also, the region is at the forefront of marine energy.  Portugal had the largest project currently, but there are projects using bouys at Santona. (Sorry it's in Spanish.)

And there's a really cool project using wind pressure from breakwaters.

There's the grand policy here with tariffs and such, and then there's regional industrial policy based around using the local government to facilitate the development of industrial clusters with backward and forward links.  The backward links mean that they breath new life into industries that are on the decline.  Forward links means that they open the door to other types of new industries. Like the wind energy cluster around Bilbao did for offshore wind and marine energy.  There's even some hope that the solar industry will be able to link into the mirror production that's in place to supply the auto industry in the area.

I ramble.  This is going to be my dissertation.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 06:09:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What you describe in the first paragraph happened in Denmark and Northern Germany, too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 06:30:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The reasons that Spain is more interesting to me are a little more esoteric.  It's an example of a region that started to behave differently than the rest of the country, and then the rest of the country followed.  It seems to be a good model for rusted out industrial districts (like the Great Lakes region in the US).  It's fascinating at a theoretical level, so it's a good topic to write a dissertation on because it's something  that people might cite.  And that's the currency of the American professor.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Feb 1st, 2010 at 07:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems to be a good model for rusted out industrial districts (like the Great Lakes region in the US)

I suggest that in that context, you to look at and add the examples in Eastern Germany. Like at the Great Lakes region, flat land and not much off-shore in Brandenburg or Sachsen-Anhalt, but wind installations expanded rapidly, Enercon was first to build a wind turbine factory in the local 'rust belt', and there is in particular a large number of new photovoltaics companies and factories.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Feb 2nd, 2010 at 04:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
has it ever happened, that a solar panel factory was actually powered by a windpower installation?

great combo/use of real estate.

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 02:44:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why not power it with solar power seeing most work is done during daylight?  I've heard of building workers going off site because of excessive rain/snow, but would you want solar power workers heading home any time there is no wind?  

In Ireland solar power workers would go on strike in protest against excessive wind if it meant they hand to work too hard... runs... (ok, racist, classist, post colonial, bourgeois propaganda, but what the hell - we go home on a sunny day (to save the harvest) because the sun shines so rarely)

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 03:01:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it's not a solar factory, but Deutsche WindGuard's wind tunnel is powered by an Enercon E-82 in the parking lot.  Here's a view from the rear, showing one of the two throats.



"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Feb 4th, 2010 at 04:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series