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For both design and financial calculations, 20 years.  Historical evidence shows that including parts changeouts, we're already past 25 years.  Lifetime depends on good original siting (less turbulence), and quality control of both manufacturer and operator.

PS.  J's project is also the first (offshore, to my knowledge) to use carbon fiber in the blades, decreasing weight and increasing stiffness, enhancing projected lifetime.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sat Feb 27th, 2010 at 02:24:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since this is offshore I've got a question.

One of the costs of going offshore is the foundation work.  Setting a foundation in water (even shallow) water involves a lot of expense.  

Can the foundation be reused, so that you could have a new turbine on the same site without reworking the foundation.  

How about the towers?

It seems like the stuff that would have a limited life span would be in the nacelle.  Can you switch out nacelles to cut costs on keeping old fields working?

I know that a lot of this is theoretical, since there aren't all that many wind turbines that are old enough to need to be replaced.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Feb 27th, 2010 at 02:49:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As you state, at this time it's all theoretical.  Offshore we just don't know.

Onshore there is evidence that towers and foundations can be reused, but still uncertain, depending partly on site conditions.  One problem is that new load factors and frequencies change tower dynamics.

I expect an entire recycling industry to evolve, and good sites to stay in service.  For offshore it's perhaps too early to understand properly.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sat Feb 27th, 2010 at 03:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The reason I ask is because I've been thinking about this stuff that came from D'Arcinoff.  If you take them seriously, they plan to have make the equivalent of 3-4% of US electric production annually.  Regardless, there's going to a saturation point as some time in the future, when the industry is mature.  I suppose what I'm wondering is what happens then?

Is there going to be a continuing need for new turbines to replace old ones in the field?  Are old foundations going to be reused? If that's the case the engineering and construction side is going to fall off massively.

I'm planning to go to the  US Social Forum in Detroit this summer, and I think that I may try to see if I can put together a panel of people who can do something on the potential for wind power in the Great Lakes.

One of the other things I've been thinking about is the impact of all these new electric cars coming out on the need for electricity.  Let's say that 100,000 Chevy Volts are sold in 2011.  With an 8 KW battery that will need to be charged daily, that's 800,000 KwH daily.  Nominally, that's 33-34MW of new nameplate capacity needed.  Figure that most of that charging will happen during 8 or so hours at night, and it's more like 100 MW nameplate.  Figure in downtime and capacity factors (I think that's the word I'm reaching for) and you're talking about a new, decent-sized coal fired plant needed.

But imagine if you could work with utilities to sell people green power for their cars.  Like a large up-front payment for a set period like 5 years.  You could use it to finance new wind projects.  Figure $0.15/ kwh (I'm putting the cost real high.)  So that's $1.20 a day, $438/year, $2190 for five years.  If you could sell that to even 5% of those new purchasers, that's about $11 million year......  I wonder if something like that could work. hmmm....

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Feb 27th, 2010 at 04:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But imagine if you could work with utilities to sell people green power for their cars.  Like a large up-front payment for a set period like 5 years.  You could use it to finance new wind projects.  Figure $0.15/ kwh (I'm putting the cost real high.)  So that's $1.20 a day, $438/year, $2190 for five years.  If you could sell that to even 5% of those new purchasers, that's about $11 million year......  I wonder if something like that could work. hmmm....

I think you need to talk to Chris Cook - LOL

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 27th, 2010 at 04:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He did, via linked in, but we somehow missed each other, as although I'm technically a member, I don't use it.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Feb 27th, 2010 at 07:39:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are some examples of financing where the utility prepays x years of expected energy upfront, in effect playing an equity role.  Haven't been involved in one of these deals, so can't examine the details.  In the US, utilities can also take the PTC directly.


"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Feb 28th, 2010 at 04:59:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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