Even wind-in-China?
they do not have the qualified personnel available to do so
Or materials or parts production facilities. But hear hear, a recognition of production level related limits. If only those who recognise Peak Oil but reject Peak Uranium would recognise similar constraints on running up production from the more abundant low uranium content ore mining. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
the nuclear supply chain is in general in a frightful state, considering the scale of build we are looking at - China, India, Russia and France are all building out heavy forging capacity in a good old fashioned dirigiste rush, because that is the main bottleneck, and people are getting tired of being extorted by japan steel.
Re: peaks. That part is not a problem - Mining ops and enrichment plants take years to put into operation, but since nuclear plant builders/operators tend to sign contracts for decades of supplies as soon as they start construction, the market will have years of warning of increased demand, so that will work out. And ultimately, high/medium grade supplies will hold until we perfect breeders, and after that, well, fissionables will last us past the sun burning out.
I'm interested. Could you detail those calculations?
since nuclear plant builders/operators tend to sign contracts for decades of supplies as soon as they start construction, the market will have years of warning of increased demand
That's a point, but not enough. If (as in many a nuclear advocate's scenario) China, India, Europe and the USA would suddenly start a rapid expansion of nuclear capacity (say just on the level of this years' expansion of wind capacity), then there would be years of warning for a demand expanding rapidly for years...
until we perfect breeders
I'm not holding my breath :-) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Cost Of a Chinese KWH: China operates in a significantly different investment context than private investors in the west - Investments in infrastructure are effectively displacing purchases of US treasury bonds, so the cost of capital to a utility is very low - 2% is the number Google spits out, which seems reasonable enough (The risk, to a Chinese bank, of lending money to a Chinese utility is one hell of a lot lower than the currency risk US treasuries exposes them to) - This lowers the cost of high-capital, low fuel cost power, Hydro, wind, nukes, compared to coal and gas. Cost of nuclear: I have no desire whatsoever to make any guesses about what the true cost of a fully indigenous nuke plant is in china, since I do not see any way to get those numbers, but fortunately we do know what the cost of a Areva or Westinghouse turnkey build in china is. 1500 dollars / kwh. Build times are four years or less, which, if the plant is operated for 8000 hours/year and amortized over 30 years gives a capital cost per kwh of 0.9 cents. Fuel costs ring in at 0.71 cent/kwh (assuming this is bought on the international market. Any guess at what chinas internal costs for enrichment ect are would be shooting in the dark..) O&M.. actually, no idea, but since the western experience is that this is the same for coal and nukes (and not much), I will leave it out for now.
1.61 cent/kwh + o&m.
Coal: No good numbers on capital cost, since this is all domestic industry, but assume its half nuclear (and including the rail build, this is likely severe low balling ). - 0.45 cents Fuel is 2 cents/kwh, and while china likely has lower mining costs than the rest of the world, this does not matter, because it is mostly going to or through ports already and thus could be sold. So: 2.45 cent/kwh. +O&M (actual cost of electricity in china is below this in some areas. Likely causes: Subsidies, and coal being bought very cheap near mines.)
Wind: western turbines set up in china: what reports I could find cite costs of 5-8 cents/kwh. Chinese turbines set up in china: Would not want to speculate any more than I would about the chinese built nukes.
