The outcome of Sunday's Ukrainian run-off vote will likely improve ties between Moscow and Kiev, leaving Poland and the Czech Republic isolated in their fear of Russia. Germany holds the key to easing those concerns. It has become an annual tradition in Europe. Each winter since 2006, Russia has turned off natural gas supplies to Ukraine, which, in turn, has siphoned off gas meant for Western Europe. In each instance, Moscow has blamed the supply cuts on a pricing dispute between Gazprom, the Russian-controlled energy giant, and Ukraine, with Gazprom claiming it is owed millions in unpaid bills. Ukraine has countered that Russia is using energy as a foreign policy tool, to punish Ukraine for aspiring to closer ties with the West. This year, despite lingering disagreements over pricing, politics might have a hand in bringing this tradition to an end. Last month, Ukrainian voters selected Viktor Yanukovych, a candidate who advocates for closer ties with Russia, to face Yulia Tymoshenko in a presidential run-off election on Sunday. Tymoshenko, a leading figure in Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 - the same revolution that removed Yanukovych from office - and who takes a more cautious view toward Russia, is well behind in the polls. If Yanukovych wins, Kiev's relations with Russia will be strengthened. This has begun already - last month, Russia resumed diplomatic ties with Ukraine after a five-year lull. Talk about Russian imperial ambitions, common under former president Viktor Yushchenko, will likely cease. Ukraine's possible shift toward a pro-Russia policy is troubling for Poland and the Czech Republic. Both have pointed to the Ukrainian gas disputes as evidence of Moscow's willingness to use economic resources as a foreign policy tool and of Russia's desire to reestablish its former sphere of influence. Ukraine under Yushchenko was a victim of these ambitions and an ally in lobbying the United States and NATO allies to speak more forcefully against Russia's increasingly strong rhetoric. A Ukraine under Yanukovych, or Tymoshenko, will no longer play this role.
It has become an annual tradition in Europe. Each winter since 2006, Russia has turned off natural gas supplies to Ukraine, which, in turn, has siphoned off gas meant for Western Europe. In each instance, Moscow has blamed the supply cuts on a pricing dispute between Gazprom, the Russian-controlled energy giant, and Ukraine, with Gazprom claiming it is owed millions in unpaid bills. Ukraine has countered that Russia is using energy as a foreign policy tool, to punish Ukraine for aspiring to closer ties with the West.
This year, despite lingering disagreements over pricing, politics might have a hand in bringing this tradition to an end. Last month, Ukrainian voters selected Viktor Yanukovych, a candidate who advocates for closer ties with Russia, to face Yulia Tymoshenko in a presidential run-off election on Sunday. Tymoshenko, a leading figure in Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 - the same revolution that removed Yanukovych from office - and who takes a more cautious view toward Russia, is well behind in the polls.
If Yanukovych wins, Kiev's relations with Russia will be strengthened. This has begun already - last month, Russia resumed diplomatic ties with Ukraine after a five-year lull. Talk about Russian imperial ambitions, common under former president Viktor Yushchenko, will likely cease.
Ukraine's possible shift toward a pro-Russia policy is troubling for Poland and the Czech Republic. Both have pointed to the Ukrainian gas disputes as evidence of Moscow's willingness to use economic resources as a foreign policy tool and of Russia's desire to reestablish its former sphere of influence. Ukraine under Yushchenko was a victim of these ambitions and an ally in lobbying the United States and NATO allies to speak more forcefully against Russia's increasingly strong rhetoric. A Ukraine under Yanukovych, or Tymoshenko, will no longer play this role.
Ukraine under Yushchenko was a victim of these ambitions
Oh, really, how?
Ukraine's shift east leaves Poles, Czechs alone in fear of Russia | World | Deutsche Welle | 05.02.2010
US President Barack Obama has also seemingly abdicated the United States' role of Eastern European champion.
