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I think he was referring to the uncertainty posed by the threat of currency speculators on less developed economies. (He argues, if I remember, for modest taxes on large capital movements in order to scare volatility inducing speculators away.) And yes, even in the case of Indonesia, it is quite possible that workers were hurt on net as well as owners, but we have to look at the actual outcome to be sure -- it's not evident that this should always, or even usually, be the case, which is why I keep saying that currency unions and pegs are case-by-case situations. Just because they work for some countries doesn't mean they'll work for all countries.

And it's not that there is a transfer of wealth from "firms" to workers, but that there is a transfer of wealth from bankers, traders, and firm owners to workers.  Clearly if firms go out of business, workers are hurt as well or more than owners. But what I argue is that there is no reason to believe that a flight to the DM in today's Europe would result in the closure of any Spanish manufacturing firms. (It might result in a few banks and merchant houses closing shop, but that's part of the transfer of welfare.)

Spain is not Indonesia, so it's pretty questionable whether currency speculation could result in anything but a very temporary change in the exchange rate. The daily flow of huge amounts of goods and services over borders would have to eventually push rates back to levels consistent with country's current account balances. However, under a fixed rate regime like the euro provides, an imbalance such as high unemployment might only be solved through transfers of wealth from richer countries or migration, both of which are also highly restricted.

I think a large part of the dissonance on this topic comes from two different ways of defining what the EU really is.  For many, particularly here, the EU is an institutional framework for international governance, which puts it against the neo-liberal narrative.  However, for many others, the EU is primarily a free trade agreement, epitomizing the victory of merchants over the medieval militarists who established castles every few kilometers on the Rhine River to soak the traders on their barges. This view places the EU project squarely in support of the neo-liberal narrative. Generally, common currencies and currency pegging are pro-neo-liberal policies meant to support the welfare of traders and bankers at the expense of workers and local governance, so the establishment of the euro ahead of a stronger, continental welfare policy framework can look alot like the neo-liberals are winning.

by santiago on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 04:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
santiago:
And it's not that there is a transfer of wealth from "firms" to workers, but that there is a transfer of wealth from bankers, traders, and firm owners to workers.

Citation needed.

Preferably more than one.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 04:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a definition of the terms being discussed. Firms don't own things -- people do. So when economists talk about the welfare effects of policies, they are not referring to inanimate objects or metaphysical placeholders for real people.  They are talking about real live people, some of whom win at the expense of other real live people. Capiche?
by santiago on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 07:02:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Firms don't own things -- people do.

Legal persons own things.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 07:31:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but that's not what relevant when trying to determine welfare effects of policies. We care about what the agents and principals in a firm are doing and how they make out in the end, not what their avatar does.
by santiago on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 12:58:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That has nothing - at all - to do with the question.

The question is - what evidence do you have that proves your contention that wealth is transferred from owners to workers?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 05:56:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, sorry.  I'm not claiming that this what definitely occurs.  I'm saying that this is what needs to be researched on a case by case basis before one can claim that currency devaluations are a bad thing for social equity and welfare.

The same question goes the other way:  What evidence do you have that wealth is transferred from workers to owners when a currency crisis occurs?  It might just as easily be a transfer of wealth from capitalist-owners to capitalist currency traders and thus have only minor welfare effects in terms of workers and other more vulnerable populations.

by santiago on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 12:39:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would guess it depends on political climate and the actions it begets, rather then economics.

Sweden had in 70ies and 80ies fought unemployment with a series of devaluations, all the while having a high inflation which ate the gains of the devaluations. This had several effects, one of them was creating a generation with next to no mortgages on their houses, as inflation had been higher then interests rates for a long period.

On the other hand Sweden had a currency crises in the early 90ies which served as the starting point for neoliberal reforms and the socdems taking the third way. Similar crises, same country, different result.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 03:30:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

For many, particularly here, the EU is an institutional framework for international governance, which puts it against the neo-liberal narrative.  However, for many others, the EU is primarily a free trade agreement, epitomizing the victory of merchants over the medieval militarists who established castles every few kilometers on the Rhine River to soak the traders on their barges.

 I like that description of the debate.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 06:06:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by santiago on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 01:04:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain is not Indonesia, so it's pretty questionable whether currency speculation could result in anything but a very temporary change in the exchange rate.

It is also questionable whether a 6% stock market drop could result in anything but a very temporary loss of loan collateral for shereholders. And yet the political class is in a panic over "investors" because the dominant ideology tells them to.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 07:33:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the whole point.  Just because the political and chattering classes make a big deal of something, doesn't mean that it truly is a problem for working people. It might just be a bigger, insider problem for the elite than it is for most other people.
by santiago on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 12:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the establishment of the euro ahead of a stronger, continental welfare policy framework can look alot like the neo-liberals are winning.

It's not for nothing that I sometimes say that the Brussels Consensus is taking the place of the Washington Consensus with much the same effects.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 5th, 2010 at 07:35:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And it's not that there is a transfer of wealth from "firms" to workers, but that there is a transfer of wealth from bankers, traders, and firm owners to workers.

This is like when you were claiming a housing bubble followed by a wave of defaults is a net transfer of wealth from financiers to homeowners.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 05:15:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It might be such a transfer.  My point is that we can't assume that it goes the other way either, a priori. Economically, the outcome could be either, and there's not even much reason to think that one way is any more probable than the other without actual empirical evidence to show the direction of welfare effects occurred.  That's what welfare economics is all about, anyway -- that you can't assume you know the real winners and losers without defining your categories well and looking at the actual evidence.
by santiago on Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 12:50:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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