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Via TODForecasts underestimate oil demand, study says - FP Trading Desk
Official forecasts may be underestimating the future demand for oil by 30 million barrels a day, according to a research paper by Joyce Dargay of the University of Leeds and Dermot Gately of New York University. If so, the next oil crisis is going to be a whopper.

Dargay and Gately base their logic on the observation that the demand for oil no longer appears to respond to price. While price increases in the 1970s hammered worldwide demand for the fuel, the heftier oil prices we've witnessed over the past decade had no such effect. Instead, worldwide demand for oil increased by 4% during that time.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Mar 16th, 2010 at 03:45:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dargay and Gately base their logic ...

Ms. Heaven (the author) needs to look-up the word "logic" in a dictionary.  

...the demand for oil no longer appears to respond to price.

Well boil my buttons.  I don't want to be some kind of pinko-commie DFH but doesn't that imply Demand Inelasticity?  

(A situation, we are assured by NCE, is Unpossible.)

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 17th, 2010 at 06:21:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
i heard chinese oil demand went up 28% in the last year.

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Mar 17th, 2010 at 02:43:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While price increases in the 1970s hammered worldwide demand for the fuel, the heftier oil prices we've witnessed over the past decade had no such effect. Instead, worldwide demand for oil increased by 4% during that time.

I think demand elasticity should be measured from the volatility of price and demand data and not from the levels or both.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 17th, 2010 at 07:57:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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