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France24 - Merkel wants option of excluding members from eurozone

The 16-nation euro zone must be able to remove members who persistently break fiscal rules, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday. She added that the Greek debt crisis, which has rattled the euro, should be dealt with at its "roots".

AFP - The 16-nation eurozone must have the option of removing one of its members from the club if a country persistently breaks its fiscal rules, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday.
  
The option, which would be used only "as a last resort", should apply to countries which "again and again do not fulfil the conditions" to which euro area members are bound, she said in a speech to parliament.
  
The chancellor added that the current rules in the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact were no longer sufficient to deal with the current crisis, which she described as the euro's "greatest-ever challenge."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 01:27:58 AM EST
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EUobserver / Merkel says errant states should be kicked out of the eurozone

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said the eurozone must be able to expel members that repeatedly break the club's fiscal rules in the future.

In a speech to the German parliament on Wednesday (17 March), the chancellor stressed that such an option would only be used "as a last resort", but added that the EU's current Stability and Growth Pact rules are no longer sufficient to deal with the euro area's difficulties.

Angela Merkel says the eurozone's current rules are not sufficient

"In the future, we need an entry in the [Lisbon] Treaty that would make it possible, as a last resort, to exclude a country from the eurozone if the conditions are not fulfilled again and again over the long term," Ms Merkel said. "Otherwise co-operation is impossible."

Market doubts over Greece's ability to meet refinancing needs in the coming months have plunged the euro area into its greatest crisis in its 11-year history, with the possibility of a sovereign debt default weighing heavily on the euro currency.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 01:28:46 AM EST
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Let's expel Germany first, for breaking Euro rules in the past.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:21:54 AM EST
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Actually read somewhere (perhaps Euro Intelligence) that that was exactly what was behind this.  They claimed that this wasn't for a country like Greece, but rather laying the foundation for Germany itself to leave the Eurozone.

Not sure how much stock to put into that analysis or if it was a Europe.Is.Doomed report, but it was an interesting take on this particular proposal.

"Schiller sprach zu Goethe, Steck in dem Arsch die Flöte! Goethe sagte zu Schiller, Mein Arsch ist kein Triller!"

by Jeffersonian Democrat (rzg6f@virginia.edu) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:30:45 AM EST
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The context of her words is basically "I'm aching to throw out Greece but we can't".

You know, if Merkel wants to talk about the "roots" of the crisis, it's better to get rid of the Growth and Stability Suicide Pact, not saying that it is "no longer sufficient".

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:37:41 AM EST
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Granted, it's the business press reporting, but... `Sinister' German Spy Plan Aimed at Hedge Funds, Analysts Say
Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told the Bundestag on March 16 that the country may have to consider ordering "intelligence agencies to set up surveillance of who is getting together with whom for which kinds of speculative processes, and where" to protect the euro.

...

European politicians blamed speculators after the euro tumbled against the dollar and the cost of insuring Greek government debt rose by a third this year, causing budget cuts that triggered street protests in Athens. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that trading in credit default swaps exacerbated the crisis.



The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:19:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The 16-nation eurozone must have the option of removing one of its members from the club if a country persistently breaks its fiscal rules, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday.
Eurostat: Provision of deficit and debt data for 2008 - second notification (22 October 2009) [PDF]:
At the end of 2008, the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP were recorded in Estonia (4.6%), Luxembourg (13.5%), Romania (13.6%), Bulgaria (14.1%), and Lithuania (15.6%). Nine Member States had government debt ratios higher than 60% of GDP in 2008: Italy (105.8%), Greece (99.2%), Belgium (89.8%), Hungary (72.9%), France (67.4%), Portugal (66.3%), Germany (65.9%), Malta (63.8%) and Austria (62.6%).
When was the last time that Germany had debt below 60% of GDP? Does that count as "persistently breaking Eurozone fiscal rules"?
The chancellor added that the current rules in the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact were no longer sufficient to deal with the current crisis, which she described as the euro's "greatest-ever challenge."
It's not only not sufficient, it's counterproductive; being, as it is, based on bonk economics.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:02:00 AM EST
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Eurostat's Selected Principal European Economic Indicators links to a table with annual time-series data on General government gross debt. This is Germany's:
1997 59.7
1998 60.3  
1999 60.9  
2000 59.7  
2001 58.8  
2002 60.4   
2003 63.9  
2004 65.7  
2005 68.0  
2006 67.6  
2007 65.0  
2008 65.9
In 2005, EurActiv reported:
Heads of state and government agreed at the March 2005 Summit to revise the EU's Stability and Growth Pact reform. Under the revised rules, member states must still keep their public deficits under a 3% GDP/deficit ratio and their debts under a 60% GDP/debt ratio.

However, the pact's rules have been made more 'flexible' across a range of areas. For example, member states will avoid an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) if they experience any negative growth at all (previously -2%), can draw on more "relevant factors" to avoid an EDP and will have longer deadlines if they do move into an EDP.

...

In essence, big countries such as France and Germany have won concessions making the pact more 'flexible' in various parts, adding up to a considerable relaxation of the rules. In return, countries such as Austria and Netherlands have won references to "enhanced surveillance, peer support and peer pressure".

The two thresholds - 60% for the debt and 3% for the deficit - remain unchanged.

Gee whiz, when the governments of Germany and France were about to have an "Excessive Deficit Procedure" open against them, they lobbied to change the rules. And this was in 2005, not in the middle of the biggest recession since the 1930's.

It is really, really hard to take Germany seriously at all on this.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:13:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
when the governments of Germany and France were about to have an "Excessive Deficit Procedure" open against them

I mean Excessive Debt Procedure.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:15:55 AM EST
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I'm kind of surprised by the Greek number. According to the .pdf in the link you gave, Greece reported 100% debt to GDP in 2005. It stayed in that area through 2008. Right now after a year or so of worldwide recession, they report a deficit of 120% to GDP.

So, since they were fudging numbers, I can't really say that it's a total shock that the deficit went from 100% to 120% in that period.

I assumed that things were much worse (in terms of the level of deception). I realize now that the deception is actually the level of deficit in the annual budget, but total budget should be a much bigger concern than annual budget. I believe they jumped from 7% to 12.7% in the annual budget, and that's where the anger arose. A 6% annual revision adds about 15 billion euros to the federal deficit, so 15 billion would be the level of deception.

Something is really really funky in all the numbers. You can't simply add the new debt from 2009 to the previous debt from 2008 to get to the current debt level. Either the degree of trouble for Greece was obvious in plain sight in previous reporting, or the current numbers that we're working with now are off. There's definitely something wrong there.

by Upstate NY on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 10:38:35 PM EST
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The greek numbers are these... Can we believe them? Will they be revised when Eurostat audits Greece's national statistics?
1997  96.6 
1998  94.5 -2.1
1999  94.0 -0.5
2000 103.4 +9.4
2001 103.7 +0.3
2002 101.7 -2.0
2003  97.4 -4.3
2004  98.6 +1.2
2005 100.0 +1.4
2006  97.1 -2.9
2007  95.6 -1.5
2008  99.2 +3.6
(same source as the German numbers in a parallel comment)

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 01:04:44 AM EST
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Yes, those are the numbers I am referring to. at the end of 2009, the deficit rose to 120%. The question is, do the revision in the annual number (from 7% to 12.7%) account for the move from 100% in total debt to GDP to 120%. The revision in the annual number would add $15 billion to the total debt, for a total of about $33 billion in additional debt for the year 2009. But $33 billion is not worth an additional 20% of debt to GDP.

So, the numbers are funky.

by Upstate NY on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 12:00:07 PM EST
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We should consider GDP growth, because if debt stays constant but GDP decreases the debt to GDP ratio grows. When GDP grows, debt-to-gdp decreases year-on-year even if the budget surplus/deficit is zero.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 06:23:59 AM EST
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I did take that into account a bit because Greece did report a flatline of .1% growth.

I really will give up on this. I think what happens is as warren Buffet said, "When the tied goes out, we see who is swimming naked." 100% debt to GDP is ok when your economy is growing. When times get tough, it's a scandal.

by Upstate NY on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 11:30:35 AM EST
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How about the interest on the debt? Should we take that into account, too?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 08:00:29 AM EST
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Right, but since the interest rate just went up for the first time in the latest deals in the last 2 months, we can assume that they had a much similar interest rate to Portugal and Spain prior to that. And this would mean that the budget reflects that lower interest rate. You're correct that future budget projections will naturally be worsened by much higher interest rates, but I just don't think it has been a factor looking backward.
by Upstate NY on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM EST
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I think the idea here is to remove the moral hazard in the future as a deterrent.  I expect that if the rules were set that others could gang up and kick you out of the Eurozone maybe countries would be more inclined to follow the rules, no?  

The fear of course is that several get together and decide they don't like the rules and split the Eurozone.

by paving on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:00:55 PM EST
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