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Would anything have changed if the whole EU had run surpluses up to the collapse?

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.
by generic on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 11:11:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, two things.

The debt levels for all Eurozone countries would be much lower at the start of the crisis, with most countries well below the 60% cap.

The deficit levels, with the budget balance coming down from a higher level, would have stayed below 3% deficit, or would have exceeded it by much less.

In addition, a less loose fiscal policy in 'good times' would have cooled down the economies and likely prevented certain epic asset bubbles from growing so much.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 11:15:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But how important are absolute debt levels? Using the full range of policy options of a fiat currency regime the only real limit on running a deficit is inflation. And even Japan's 200% debt level and constant deficit don't seem to have let to high inflation.

Migeru:

In addition, a less loose fiscal policy in 'good times' would have cooled down the economies and likely prevented certain epic asset bubbles from growing so much.

But the economy as a whole wasn't really overheating before the crash.

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.

by generic on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 12:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
how important are absolute debt levels?

Not really that important. We're only talking in these terms because of the Growth and Stability (suicide) Pact.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 12:28:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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