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I'm kind of surprised by the Greek number. According to the .pdf in the link you gave, Greece reported 100% debt to GDP in 2005. It stayed in that area through 2008. Right now after a year or so of worldwide recession, they report a deficit of 120% to GDP.

So, since they were fudging numbers, I can't really say that it's a total shock that the deficit went from 100% to 120% in that period.

I assumed that things were much worse (in terms of the level of deception). I realize now that the deception is actually the level of deficit in the annual budget, but total budget should be a much bigger concern than annual budget. I believe they jumped from 7% to 12.7% in the annual budget, and that's where the anger arose. A 6% annual revision adds about 15 billion euros to the federal deficit, so 15 billion would be the level of deception.

Something is really really funky in all the numbers. You can't simply add the new debt from 2009 to the previous debt from 2008 to get to the current debt level. Either the degree of trouble for Greece was obvious in plain sight in previous reporting, or the current numbers that we're working with now are off. There's definitely something wrong there.

by Upstate NY on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 10:38:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The greek numbers are these... Can we believe them? Will they be revised when Eurostat audits Greece's national statistics?
1997  96.6 
1998  94.5 -2.1
1999  94.0 -0.5
2000 103.4 +9.4
2001 103.7 +0.3
2002 101.7 -2.0
2003  97.4 -4.3
2004  98.6 +1.2
2005 100.0 +1.4
2006  97.1 -2.9
2007  95.6 -1.5
2008  99.2 +3.6
(same source as the German numbers in a parallel comment)

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 01:04:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, those are the numbers I am referring to. at the end of 2009, the deficit rose to 120%. The question is, do the revision in the annual number (from 7% to 12.7%) account for the move from 100% in total debt to GDP to 120%. The revision in the annual number would add $15 billion to the total debt, for a total of about $33 billion in additional debt for the year 2009. But $33 billion is not worth an additional 20% of debt to GDP.

So, the numbers are funky.

by Upstate NY on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 12:00:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We should consider GDP growth, because if debt stays constant but GDP decreases the debt to GDP ratio grows. When GDP grows, debt-to-gdp decreases year-on-year even if the budget surplus/deficit is zero.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 06:23:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I did take that into account a bit because Greece did report a flatline of .1% growth.

I really will give up on this. I think what happens is as warren Buffet said, "When the tied goes out, we see who is swimming naked." 100% debt to GDP is ok when your economy is growing. When times get tough, it's a scandal.

by Upstate NY on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 11:30:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about the interest on the debt? Should we take that into account, too?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 08:00:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, but since the interest rate just went up for the first time in the latest deals in the last 2 months, we can assume that they had a much similar interest rate to Portugal and Spain prior to that. And this would mean that the budget reflects that lower interest rate. You're correct that future budget projections will naturally be worsened by much higher interest rates, but I just don't think it has been a factor looking backward.
by Upstate NY on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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