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It follows that the only thing you can do with your foreign reserves is prop up your own currency.

That has not always been so, and may cease to be the case in the future.

In the old-fashioned mercantilist frame of reference, reserves represented the number of other people's mercenaries you could buy rent. So military force was used to maintain a trade surplus in the face of an overvalued currency (having an overvalued currency and a trade surplus allowed people to eat their cake and have it too in terms of ForEx reserves).

In the event that previously stable militaries disintegrate into mercenaries, we may be heading back to '99. 1799, to be specific.

Viewed in this light, Blackwater, et al take on rather ominous undertones.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Mar 15th, 2010 at 07:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right. Correct what I said at the top to
the only thinkthing that China might do is start borrowing dollars (whether the public or private sector does this is immaterial) to fund its economic or military activity, using its currency reserves to back that debt (basically, the Chinese central bank can safely allow the Chinese economy to accumulate an amount of dollar-denominated debt equal to its dollar reserve holdings


The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 16th, 2010 at 03:17:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But isn't that is a net capital inflow of foreign exchange, increasing demand for ¥RMB, putting upward pressure on exchange rates.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Mar 16th, 2010 at 02:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean in addition to the existing upwards pressure from being a net exporter, which the policy of accumulating reserves is supposed to be offsetting?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 16th, 2010 at 02:30:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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