This is where the left has overall more resources than the right. Europe Ecologie is expected to poll in the low to mid-teens and so be present in Round Two. The Front de Gauche or the Trotskysts are not expected to make the 10% line, but there's a fair-sized "réservoir" of votes there. Meanwhile Sarkozy has doen all he can to consolidate the rightwing electorate by bringing over Le Pen's electorate to the UMP, and has no significant reserves for the second round.
In other words, could the supporters of the main parties stay at home to watch the rugby without risk??
From this point of view, Europe Ecologie's settling in as Number Two on the left is one important point: the PS can less and less refuse to make deals with them. As for the Front Nazional, it seems Sarko and friends haven't fully succeeded in absorbing them, in spite of their non-stop messages to them.
Many French regions today, including Paris, are run by a PS-Green coalition. It's important for the Greens to score high so that they can claim a higher proportion of seats (and chairmanships) in the merged list for next Sunday. Conversely, the PS needs to remain strong to keep the pesky environmentalist at bay...
The newly merged lists must be checked in by Tuesday, 18:00 sharp (and no stop at the café: this is no Italy :) Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Lowell left us too soon. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
It does no good whatsoever for the UMP in any case, all these regions with the FN passing the bar. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Mostly, these coalitions arise before or during elections (between the two rounds). This is, it's true, unlike coalitions in Germany.
One should remember there are two rounds of voting. Only lists having scored at least 10% in the first round may line up for the second (and they may make deals with bigger lists before that). So Round Two sees a decider between the big lists.
Otherwise, it's not first past the post.
