Display:
It seems to me that the authors of the FT Alphaville article cited don't allow for the differences in market sentiment between boom times, when greed predominates, and down times, when fear predominates. It seems bloody obvious to me that, when you are fearful, you are likely to hold on to your money, and that this will decrease V. I suspect that they have no concept of dV/dt, t=time in this case, as they live in a timeless world.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 10:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fear and Greed are motivations both for investment in assets, which may inflate asset prices, and for levels of discretionary spending, which may inflate retail prices.

My point is that V relates to two distinct monetary circulations:

V1 - money circulating in the financial economy or FIRE sector as Hudson has it;

V2 - money circulating in the 'real' economy.

It is the fiscal interface between these two monetary flows which is crucial.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 09:08:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But in the current climate V1 is reduced from those wealthy who dislike the risk/reward profile and V2 is reduced from the rest, who have limited resources and can see the need to carefully husband them. Double whammy.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 11:47:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's quite right ... the V of Friedman's MV=PT is sometimes a mis-measured V2 when talking about GDP, and sometimes V1+V2 when talking about the total money stock.

V_GPD is not, of course, either V2 or V1 ...

Switching to w for the wealth management FIRE sector and o for the output of real goods and services sector, because M1 and M2 for money stock allocated to the service of each sector is too confusing with the M1 and M2 monetary aggregates ...

In MV=PQ, which is due to, V:=$GDP/M, and Q:=($GDP/P)

... if M=Mw+Mo, Vo:=($GDP/Mo), so that the correction from the synthetic V_GDP to Vo is:

Vo = ($GDP/Mo) = [$GDP/(Mw+Mo)][(Mw+Mo)/Mo], so
Vo = V_GDP[1+Mw/Mo] = V_GDP + V_GDP[Mw/Mo]

If V_GDP was to be rising while Mw/Mo is falling, it would be quite possible for Vo to be either stable or declining.

To the extent that the rate of change in Vo and Vw are both constrained by institutional rules (the real world equivalent of Friedman's arbitrary assumption that velocity is stable), it may well make sense to track them independently, since they would to a substantial extent be constrained by <i>distinctive</i> institutional rules.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 03:44:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series