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Now, the mainstream conventional foolishness obscures this, because it pretends that a sovereign economy must treat deficits as borrowing, which is ... well, foolish, hence the name. So under the mainstream conventional foolishness, there is no change of category for the individual states of a currency zone.
In reality (cf. billy blog, Clowns to the left, jokers to the right), a sovereign economy can deficit spend if it has sufficient domestic unemployed resources that the residual inflationary pressure from outbidding already employed resources is on the order of ongoing productivity growth. There is no finance constraint ... but a state within that sovereign economy does face a finance constraint.
So the flaw in the policies to agree to restrain government deficits of EU members to a certain level is not the agreement per se, but rather the lack of a facility at the Eurozone level to create deficits corresponding to the size of the unemployment gap to be transferred to the member states in the event of an economic downturn. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
When receiving funds issued by the European Treasury, member states shall incur in a fixed interest premium (say 1%) over the marketed interest. This extra interest could either revert to bond holders, the European budget or both
Doesn't that undermine the purpose of the exercise? The market could still extort ridiculous returns for holding bonds.
The easiest way to muddle through the crisis would be to order the ECB to enforce a maximal level of interest on Eurozone debt. But then the treaties explicitly forbid that. Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
The market would not exert the same sort of pressure on Euro-bonds, it is completely different to bid for a bond issued by a state with a GDP of 250 000 million and a budget deficit of 12% from a bond issued by an union with a GDP of 8.4 billion , a deficit of 6% and a trade surplus. The expectations are totally different and the demand for Euro-bonds should be rife.
The easiest way to muddle through the crisis would be to order the ECB to enforce a maximal level of interest on Eurozone debt.
That would also be the easiest way for a sovereign default within the Eurozone :) with an interest cap troubled states wouldn't find buyers for their bonds to roll-over debt and/or refinance their budgets. And remember that when a state emits debt the ECB does not intervene. Vencit omnia veritas.
The market would not exert the same sort of pressure on Euro-bonds,
Ah. A percentage on the interest rate of the centrally emitted bonds.
Luis de Sousa:
That would also be the easiest way for a sovereign default within the Eurozone :) with an interest cap troubled states wouldn't find buyers for their bonds to roll-over debt and/or refinance their budgets.
By enforcing I meant something like this:
billy blog » Blog Archive » Why history matters
Prior to 1982, a tap system operated where the government would set the interest rate and then supply bonds to investors up to demand. Sometimes investors did not take up as much as the Government desired. The extra funds came from contra entries in the RBA-Treasury accounts (the government borrowing from itself!).
That's kind of comical :). History is important, certainly, but in those days economies in Europe where much more isolated than today. Btw, that's more or less how the PIIGS operated prior to joining the EU.
Imagining such blatant printing today: the currency would naturally depreciate. With low interest rates and a depreciating currency a feedback would rapidly emerge, where ever fewer investors would bid for bonds denominated in ever less valuable currency.
Another option could be the emission of debt denominated in foreign currency to attract foreign investors. But if the local currency depreciated too fast, servicing that debt could become unbearable and a default would ensue.
I just don't see how could anyone use that strategy successfully in today's highly intertwined global economy (apart from the US of course :)). Vencit omnia veritas.
Indeed, notice how in the following:
With low interest rates and a depreciating currency a feedback would rapidly emerge, where ever fewer investors would bid for bonds denominated in ever less valuable currency.
(1) Yes, if the government engages in responsible monetary policy, the currency will naturally depreciate.
Does every currency go into a downward spiral meltdown every time it depreciates? Of course not ... if it did, every foreign exchange market would always be melting down.
Remember how Japan experience a currency meltdown when it put its cash rate at basically 0% ... going from a bit over 100 yen for a dollar or a euro to 1,000 yen for a euro then 10,000 yen for a euro then 100,000 yen for a euro, because setting the cash rate at 0% sets up a feedback loop?
No?
Oops ... an explanation that explains things clearly and simply is a fine thing ... but when it explains clearly and simply effects that do no happen in its cause and effect story ... that's not a real world explanation, its just faith-based bullshit used to justify the system by which the speculative class is allowed to parasite on the productive sectors of the economy. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
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