Yes.
I mean, that's just my guess. But I really can't see that happening. And what would be in it for Russia, exactly? I think Russia occupies a truly unique space, geographically, culturally, historically that is yes, largely "European," but not limited to that. And it is precisely that uniqueness that gives them leverage. I think they want to be free to make decisions about their relationship with Iran and China and others in their backyard without having to defer to what is best for Europe. And at this juncture, there are so many nationalist and Eurasianist movements going on in Russia that I think any move to join the EU would be met with public backlash.
That said, the idea of a pan-European security organization which would include Russia is quite popular there, and probably more necessary in the long term than NATO expansion. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
So, no absorption. But I can imagine closer ties, cooperation, and perhaps an alliance of relative equals.
For the EU, closer ties should be a no-brainer. Even Sarkozy realises this.
The nationalism angle is interesting because it means the US, China and Russia are all in danger of fragmentation, in their own different ways. And parts of the EU - including the UK - aren't necessarily guaranteed to stay put either over the next couple of decades.
If the nationalisms don't become too militantly fascist, it would be interesting to watch the development of an extended cooperative soft-EU that could might parts of Russia, the Middle East, and even some countries in Asia, and would have trade agreements with the saner remnants of the US.
While this looks like another superpower stand-off for now, I think it's more likely in the medium term that the days of imperial superpowers are over.
