Why has Russia joining the EU (unlike Turkey) never been on the agenda? Does the opposition come from Russia or from within the EU? Is the notion of a former superpower becoming "subservient" to Brussels anathema to them?
Its economy is comparable in size to the other larger EU members. Its population equivalent to c. Germany and Italy - 140M compared to 500M for the current EU as a whole. So its not as if it would dwarf the EU in anything but geographical area and access to carbon resources. notes from no w here
But I can see new trade agreements and new research cooperation in the near future. Russia's high education levels are important to remember, though there is a language barrier.
One thing that has intrigued me is the cultural value of Russian 'improvisation' born of make do and mend in the Soviet era. St. Petersburg BTW is a great city and highly recommended for a non-tourist visit ( though there is also plenty to gawk at) You can't be me, I'm taken
The very first bar plot is [Russians'] yes answers over time, which started from 59% in Mar 01, peaked at 73% in June 03, and fell down to 30% in Sep 08. The number opposed didn't move so dramatically, from 19 to 10 to 27% today.
At the same time, the EU has been playing carrot and stick with Ukraine, but giving the cold shoulder to them at key points (just like we do to Turkey). And then, when the political pendulum in Ukraine swings and pro-Russia Yanukovich wins the Presidential election and starts making noises about joining a free trade area with Russia, the EU gets all worried that "we're losing Ukraine". Gah. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Yes.
I mean, that's just my guess. But I really can't see that happening. And what would be in it for Russia, exactly? I think Russia occupies a truly unique space, geographically, culturally, historically that is yes, largely "European," but not limited to that. And it is precisely that uniqueness that gives them leverage. I think they want to be free to make decisions about their relationship with Iran and China and others in their backyard without having to defer to what is best for Europe. And at this juncture, there are so many nationalist and Eurasianist movements going on in Russia that I think any move to join the EU would be met with public backlash.
That said, the idea of a pan-European security organization which would include Russia is quite popular there, and probably more necessary in the long term than NATO expansion. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
So, no absorption. But I can imagine closer ties, cooperation, and perhaps an alliance of relative equals.
For the EU, closer ties should be a no-brainer. Even Sarkozy realises this.
The nationalism angle is interesting because it means the US, China and Russia are all in danger of fragmentation, in their own different ways. And parts of the EU - including the UK - aren't necessarily guaranteed to stay put either over the next couple of decades.
If the nationalisms don't become too militantly fascist, it would be interesting to watch the development of an extended cooperative soft-EU that could might parts of Russia, the Middle East, and even some countries in Asia, and would have trade agreements with the saner remnants of the US.
While this looks like another superpower stand-off for now, I think it's more likely in the medium term that the days of imperial superpowers are over.
