UK Election open thread | 155 comments (155 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: UK Election open thread (none / 1)

John Rentoul - Second poll shows Lib Dems overtaking Labour

ComRes for Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday tomorrow puts Lib Dems in second place:

Conservative                31 (-4)
Labour                 &nbs p;        27 (-2)
Lib Dem                 &nbs p;     29 (+8)
Others               &nbs p;           13 (-2)

Change since last ComRes poll, for Independent/ITV News 14 April.
Change since ComRes for IoS/S Mirror 11 April: Con -8, Lab -5, LD +13, Others nc.

Additional questions:

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 11:58:35 AM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

Electoral Calculus gives Con 239 seats, Lab 273, LD 106.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 12:09:44 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

That's a staggering difference from what they've got up on their web page: Con 304, Lab 236, LD 78.

Such a difference I'm wondering if their Model has gone ping! on 'em.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 12:45:52 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 1)

well that's plugging the new ComRes figures into their model

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 12:48:39 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

If your projection holds wouldn't that be a historic collapse on the part of the Cons?

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 01:09:39 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (4.00 / 2)

well its about a 40 seat increase on where they are now, but from where they expected to be as little as a month ago, its not good at all.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 01:26:32 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

From this side of the Atlantic it seems ~~air brush boy~~ Cameron and his pals are doing everything in their power to throw the election.

I understand Parliament is elected district by district - or whatever you call 'em - and the relation of national support to district support, especially to the marginal swing districts Helen has talking about, is tenuous. Further, it may very well be I don't understand UK election strategy and tactics. But ...

Jimminey.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 01:45:05 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (4.00 / 2)

I think the Tories are ultimately hopeless. Their 2005 campaign was also horrible. It's a combination of them being out of touch as well as peope recoiling as soon as the mask slips and they get a glimpse of the "ugly Tory" underneath.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 01:51:27 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

Using ceeb's numbers they are facing a ~56% Not Tory (Lab & LD combined) on their left plus some percentage, don't know what it is, of Not Tory to their right. That doesn't leave them much room to eke a Parliamentary majority.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 02:14:16 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

Fewer votes, more seats. That stinks.

by IdiotSavant on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 10:01:31 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 1)

Another has the LDs taking the lead.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 02:41:11 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (4.00 / 3)

Interesting comment by "Jamie" there:

Another great looser from this election seems to be FPTP. Even if the Lib Dems finish last they will probably have the political clout to demand PR as a condition of any support. And if they come 2nd or 1st but still have vastly fewer seats I think the public outcry would be so great that the government would have absolutely no choice but to put PR to a referendum.

that I don't know enough to evaluate.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 02:50:00 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

Yep.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 02:53:49 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 0)

Is that a "yep" to Jamie's comment or a "yep" to my ignorance?

:-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 03:11:06 PM EST
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Re: UK Election open thread (none / 1)

To Jamie's comment. :) Should be quite interesting if the LDs can keep it up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Apr 17th, 2010 at 03:15:23 PM EST
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