How long before this coalition collapses? Maybe we need another pool...
And other than that, they get to share the blame when the Tories stink up the joint.
The only way the LD's come out of this ahead is if they finally pull the trigger on an issue with massive popular opposition, furiously declare that it breaks the coalition agreement, and vote no confidence in their own government.
... uhm, after the poison pilled electoral reform has been passed so that they can get second preference votes after nobody will be interested in giving them their first preference. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
However, the Tories will include fixed House terms, which will be unpopular since the Tories will be a very unpopular government by the time the referendum is in front of the voters, and they will prefer the possibility of an early election to turf the Coalition government out by then. That's part of the poison pill.
Of course the Tories only hope of surviving more than a year or two is if the LD's can't choose the right time to break over some "matter of principle" and vote no confidence to force an early election. So if they loose their campaign against the referendum and it passes, in return they get the chance to hang onto government and hope that the economy is better by the time of the next election. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
That would put it in the LD's and some Northern Irish support to win a no confidence vote in the Tory/LD government and confidence in a caretaker unity government.
Almost everyone except the Tories wanting an election is part of the "when the time is right" I was referring to.
But there are obviously details in the unwritten British constitution that I don't know about. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
I think once it became clear that Labour was not up to a rainbow coalition Clegg should have allowed the Tories a shot at a minority government by not opposing Cameron in a Confidence Vote. Now the Lib Dems not only won't get any of their policy goals but they will be blamed by the Tories when the coalition falls apart and they have cemented the perception of being Tory-lite among the Labour rank-and-file (the idea of the Social Democratic Party 'betrayal' of Labour in the 80's dies hard and this doesn't help).
So Clegg will achieve none of his policy objectives, will be perceived as having failed the test of government by the Serious People, and will have a harder time getting more seats next time, let alone negotiating with Labour. The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
And possibly a book deal or two.
I can't see how this works out well for the LDs. Aside from getting some small concessions, they've basically signed their name away to the Nasty Party.
Not that forming a coalition with Labour would've been a great thing. The LDs were between a rock and a hard place. The answer, I think, would've been to allow a minority government. But that also would've been disastrous for Clegg, who'd already lost seats.
Labour is in a much stronger position than might have been feared. They lost the majority but maintained 258 seats. My guess is, barring a much-faster-than-expected recovery, this will be a short period of Tory rule. The budget cuts will be bad enough, but if they tip the economy back into recession, it's going to immediately reinstate the view that the Tories are idiots.
Then everybody will sit around wondering what went wrong while saying, "Well, at least we kicked the guy out who warned this would happen. Boy, he was shit, wasn't he?" Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Regrettably, the concerted media action to rein in the LD surge worked enough to kill the window of opportunity. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
that also would've been disastrous for Clegg
For all three leaders, this entire situation was: either you get into government, or you're finished as party leader.
What do you think of the SocDem/Liberal divide in the party? Deep enough to split under stress?
Assuming (?) Clegg represented the "Liberal" and Chris Huhne the "Soc Dem" wings in the 2007 leadership contest, one can say the contest was extremely close but also extremely civil and supporters of both candidates would have been happy with the other winning. The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
So they've basically agreed to...become Tories? Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
But... Clegg could still put the knife in by siding with Cameron. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he did that.
The pattern is completely consistent - in the same way that Blair turned out to be a proto-Neocon, Clegg has turned out to be a closet Tory.
As the cliche says - it doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets in.
This seems to be the rule in democracies generally, and I only wish it would apply in France. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
... Before I say anything more about that coalition government I would like to express my thanks and admiration for Gordon Brown. He has been a towering figure in British politics for well over a decade. And the manner in which he has acted over the last few days has demonstrated immense dignity, grace and a profound sense of his public duty. We are now going to form a new government More importantly than anything else, we are going to form a new kind of government; I hope this is the start of a new kind of politics I have always believed in. Diverse, plural, where politicians with different points of view find a way to work together to provide the good government for the sake of the whole country deserves. ... I am sure you have many questions, maybe many doubts. But I can assure you I would not have entered into this agreement unless I was genuinely convinced it was a unique opportunity to deliver the changes you and I believe in. Fair taxes. A fair start in life for every child. A new approach to our discredited banking system and the prospect of green and sustainable economic growth. And new, open politics which you can trust once again. ...
Before I say anything more about that coalition government I would like to express my thanks and admiration for Gordon Brown. He has been a towering figure in British politics for well over a decade. And the manner in which he has acted over the last few days has demonstrated immense dignity, grace and a profound sense of his public duty.
We are now going to form a new government More importantly than anything else, we are going to form a new kind of government; I hope this is the start of a new kind of politics I have always believed in. Diverse, plural, where politicians with different points of view find a way to work together to provide the good government for the sake of the whole country deserves.
...
I am sure you have many questions, maybe many doubts. But I can assure you I would not have entered into this agreement unless I was genuinely convinced it was a unique opportunity to deliver the changes you and I believe in.
changes you and I believe in
Change you can believe in?
That could make a slogan.
... the good government for the sake of the whole country deserves.
... the [Lib Dem] Federal Executive and parliamentary party yesterday approved the coalition agreement negotiated with the Conservative Party. Both bodies endorsed it overwhelmingly, by much more than a three-quarters majority. The provisions of the `triple lock' procedure approved by conference in 1998 have therefore been satisfied, and there is no requirement for a special conference to endorse the agreement. However, Liberal Democrats remain a democratic party, and we believe it right to consult our membership on this momentous occasion in our party's history. The Federal Executive is therefore calling a special conference to take place on Sunday 16 May (1-5pm), in the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. The only item of debate on the agenda will be a motion to endorse the coalition agreement. ...
Both bodies endorsed it overwhelmingly, by much more than a three-quarters majority. The provisions of the `triple lock' procedure approved by conference in 1998 have therefore been satisfied, and there is no requirement for a special conference to endorse the agreement.
However, Liberal Democrats remain a democratic party, and we believe it right to consult our membership on this momentous occasion in our party's history. The Federal Executive is therefore calling a special conference to take place on Sunday 16 May (1-5pm), in the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham.
The only item of debate on the agenda will be a motion to endorse the coalition agreement. ...
Besides, it's not clear how many members the LDs will still have by then.
Curious to know what kind of backlash there'll be on this. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Labour's core membership accepted a shift to Blairite presidentialism with some damage, but without organising itself into a formal or explicit opposition. Just the opposite happened - dissenters were purged, and the members who were left were mostly willing to accept top-down influence, even if they weren't comfortable with it.
So we'll see maybe 25-30% splitting to Labour, another 10-20% leaving completely, and the rest staying put.
And because internal democracy is relative to the numbers of active members, and not to the numbers of people who might be members if they felt there was a chance to be influential, this will consolidate the infuence of the cabinet and the MPs and push the LDs further towards Tory territory.
Tory-friendly LDs can stay in the party comfortably now, while Labour-friendly LDs have to leave and move towards an alternative party that is - or was - less responsive than the LD structure used to be.
