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But will the Tories be so Machiavellian as to oppose a change they have just agreed to put to the UK electorate? Undoubtedly some on the fringes of the party will, but it is hard to see how Clegg could have agreed to a deal whereby Cameron will hold an AV referendum only to oppose its passage - even if it has been agreed that the Lib Dems can abstain on Trident and a few other very controversial Tory policies.
What if the fringes of the party and the Murdoch press both oppose AV in the referendum? This can give Cameron plausible deniability, and his own party is not monolythically behind him.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 12th, 2010 at 08:57:32 AM EST
That is quite a likely scenario, which is why I said that if Clegg is smart he will have insisted that all the electoral reform is all done and dusted during the honeymoon period in the next 6 months.  If Cameron shows bad faith on this, then Clegg will have cause to force a general election whilst he still has some chance of electoral survival under the old system.  I can see Labour licking their lips at the prospect of putting a spanner in the works once the Coalition becomes really unpopular... - at which point a referendum is unlikely to pass anyway as it will be seen as a referendum ON the coalition.

Frank's Home Page and Diary Index
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed May 12th, 2010 at 09:40:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Clegg smart? On TV, he comes across as permanently amiable but rather befuddled - a slower downmarket proto-Blair without the Satanism.

Would a smart leader not have negotiated a better position, or opted for a less formal alliance, allowing the Tories to crash and burn without tying himself to their depleted uranium boat anchor?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 12th, 2010 at 10:25:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not close enough to the situation to judge whether he negotiated a good deal on either jobs or policies, but supporting a minority Government is a mugs game.  You get none of the credit and all of the blame, and the moment when it least suits you Cameron runs to the country and gets an overall majority.

If Clegg has any smarts he will have negotiated a 5 year programme with his priorities in their early.  That way the Lib Dems come to be seen as a party capable of influencing policy and of Government after 100 years on the fringe - which gives them a certain credibility even if the Government ends up being unpopular.

Even the fact that Coalition Government comes to be seen as "normal" in the UK means it is moving closer to the European norm!  Joining the Euro was never going to happen anyway barring a financial melt-down, and if that happens Clegg will have an issue on which to precipitate an election if he wants one.

If Clegg does achieve AV he will have achieved more than any other Lib Dem leader in living memory - not just for the Lib Dems, but for all minority parties, for electoral participation, and for a system seen as being more inclusive and fair.

Frank's Home Page and Diary Index

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed May 12th, 2010 at 10:36:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Joining the Euro was never going to happen anyway barring an even bigger financial melt-down

FIFY

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed May 12th, 2010 at 05:44:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Recall my diary: Blogging the Liberal Democrat Conference: Day One (September 17th, 2007)
The Euro was barely mentioned, but there was an intervention by someone from "The City" which I'll report here. He started out with the claim that London is subsidising the rest of the UK through its tax revenues which, as we know (ahem), are due mostly to London's position at the centre of the world's capital markets. He mentioned that the Euro Zone is taking over from the US as a global standard-setter in finance, and that this is driving international banks to establish offices in London, which (see above) is good for the UK economy. So the Euro is good for Britain because of that. But, of course, that doesn't mean that the UK should trade the Pound for the Euro. And here's where I really felt like slapping the guy to wake him up: he said there wouldn't be a case for the UK joining the Euro Zone unless and until there's some serious economic crisis which is not what "the current hiccup" is.
A hiccup, all right... This was just after Northern Rock failed...

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 12th, 2010 at 06:10:17 PM EST
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