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Having just read the coalition Government agreement it appears that the Conservatives are not committing themselves to support AV even though they will support having a referendum on it.  So what are the chances of AV passing if BOTH Tories and Labour campaign against, and will this not strain Tory Lib Dem relationships to breaking point?  

A few Tory mavericks and the Murdock media campaigning against AV is one thing.  Cameron and the Tory part of the Government campaigning against their Lib Dem colleagues is quite a different matter.  I could see this becoming the game breaker.  Its all very well the Lib Dems abstaining on a couple of Parliamentary votes by prior agreement.  But the two parties campaigning against each other on an absolutely fundamental issue will do nothing for the longevity of the Government.

Of course if the British people had any sense they would vote for AV precisely because the two main parties are against it, and in a low poll the Lib Dems might actually beat both major parties.  After all, AV changes nothing except giving people effectively more than one vote - or making their one vote count as part of the final determination of who gets the seat and ending the spectre of "wasted votes" and pointless candidacies .  In theory its a win win for the voters.

But never underestimate the power of the media and the establishment to persuade people to vote against their own best interests....

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed May 12th, 2010 at 04:51:15 PM EST
If it becomes Tory&Labour vs Lib-dems in the referendum, I think Lib-dems stand to gain. If they win, well victory. If they loose, but has more votes for "yes" then they had in the general election, they can pull the plug on the coalition and enter an election campaign with easy pickings among those that just voted yes.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Fri May 14th, 2010 at 09:44:24 AM EST
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If they call a general election because they lost a referendum on AV, that will be perceived as sour grapes and not accepting the will of the electorate.  Thus even if they got 40-% of the vote for AV in a referendum, they might get less than 20% in a subsequent General election.  Failing to accept a referendum result is the very worst reason for calling a General.  They would have to find another legitimate reason to pull a general...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri May 14th, 2010 at 06:59:58 PM EST
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