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-A paragraph about the need to explain what is going on.
Repos, CDOs, credit default swaps, subprime mortgages - it all sounds terribly complicated. It actually isn't. It's a very simple scam: The largest banks in the world have been allowed to mix the part of their business that does speculation (essentially a game of Russian Roulette) with the part of their business that does valuable services like checking accounts and credit cards. The (entirely predictable) result is that the banks in question are able to take the winnings when they win, and make your savings account take the bullet when they lose.
-Another about the stupidity of the media."You are not going to get the real news there".
Just off the top of my head, I can name five internet blogs or Unserious economists who predicted the crash. How many Serious reporters and Serious publications can you name who can make that claim?
-A first economic paragraph explaining the fallacy of being rich if you have more money. Explaining inflation, hyperinflation, deflation explicitly. Explain short term and long term growth implicitly.
What is money? Money is a promise by someone else to give you something valuable. When your house becomes more expensive, it means that you get more money. But it does not mean that there are more valuable things for other people to give you - your house becoming more expensive produces not a single ball bearing, lays not a single meter of railway track, builds not a single cargo ship and digs not a single gram of iron out of the ground. So that nice new money you got from your house getting more expensive? It's counterfeit. It's Monopoly money, passing for real cash.
-Describe the nature of the financial collapse. CDO and CDS do no appear, they are the casino part of the financial world.
But so what if you get some counterfeit money from selling your house? That doesn't hurt anybody, right? Well, the guy who bought your house probably borrowed some 80 % of this counterfeit money at a bank. So now the bank has a whole lot of counterfeit money on its books. The bank doesn't like that, so it tries to replace the counterfeit money with valuable stuff. But the economy doesn't make enough valuable stuff to trade for all the counterfeit money (that's why it was counterfeit in the first place), so the banks start killing companies and selling their machines as scrap.
Scrap isn't as valuable as machines, but the banks can take the scrap and sell it - they can't take the machines and sell them. So in their attempt to make all of their counterfeit money real, they destroy the economic engine that could be used to make some of the counterfeit money real.
-Explain what a typical liberal (in the Krugman sense of liberal) response is
Of course, the banks only exist because we the people allow them to exist. Without a government charter, the banks can't operate. So instead of allowing the banks to strangle the real economy in a futile attempt to save themselves, we can strangle the banks and save the real economy. The economy that makes food and steel and computers.
- Jake Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.
The last point regarding the bans is already implicit with a tax on the casino. Maybe a more explicit version can be updated.
However, the most interesting part is the example of counterfeit money. It is really interesting. But I do not know how it will fit in the present situation. it is true that they have to do it, but at the end of day I do not know how it fits the overall scheme. In the spanish version I take an academic approach: Problems of deflation a nd hiperinflation.. and that everything works just as fine with 1% and with 6 % inflation.. the question is who benefits.
So the point about banking having a tendency to liquidate.. where does it fits in the financial meltdown? My idea is that, at the end of the day, the important point is your first point... casino and credit mix.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
It seemed to me that it could have played a role in the German banking system.. but this is aline in the structure of the problems facing Europe. I mean, in the narrative I am trying to write, the problem is that the average german worker did not get a wage rise, and it went to the banking system... I certainly could add a line regarding how the banking grabbed money by giving it to someone in Spain.
But is it really necessary to explain it in detail.. or the shame is obvious without explaining it in detail.
One thing that needs to be explained is the difference between money and cash. Only the state can mint cash in the form of notes and coins, but banks can create money by the magic of double entry accounting. Ask the audience to compare the average amount of cash they have in their wallet with the average balance of their bank account. That's the difference between cash and money.
Now ask the audience what the bank does when they give someone a mortgage. Do hundreds of thousands of Euros get delivered by armoured van in stacks of 500 euro bills? No. The bank credits the loan amount to the borrower's account (as a liability to the bank) and adds the loan to the other side ot its balance sheet (as an asset to the bank). The magic of double-entry accounting. The same thing with a loan or overdraft. By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
As long as the prices of assets which banks have financed are increasing, they can function effectively with almost no reserve. But if assets they have financed fall in value by more than their reserve capital they are technically insolvent, but their insolvency may not be revealed until they are unable to meet an obligation. Once this happens with a large bank, the shit storm begins. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
isn't all credit the creation of money?
Such credit created by a person is based upon the use value of 'Labour' which I would define as a combination of:
(a) Energy - manpower, or unqualified labour;
(b) 'Subjective' Knowledge - what I have between my ears, including knowledge, experience, intuition, common sense, creativity, contacts etc etc - which enables me/(someone else) to put my manpower to best/(most profitable) use.
But note that credit may also be created based upon the use value of productive assets, particularly land/location, and most money in existence comes into existence through credit created by banks and secured against the use value of land/location.
An increasing amount of credit is based upon the use value of 'objective' knowledge, which is 'monetised' through the use of property rights and/or the concept of the corporate 'legal' person.
The monetisation of use value requires a framework of trust, and we are accustomed to using credit intermediaries for that purpose, who back an implicit guarantee of a borrower's credit with an amount of proprietary capital set by banking regulators. The process also requires an accounting system to record credit obligations.
Finally, exchange transactions require a 'Value Standard' or unit of measure for value, which is analogous to the metre as a standard unit of measure for length or a kilogramme as a standrd unit of measure for mass.
Note here that we are accustomed to a Unit of currency being the same thing as a Value Standard or unit of measure. This is not necessarily the case. A Value Standard is an abstract unit, whereas a Unit of currency is a store of value (or money's worth) which is generally acceptable in exchange.
In my analysis - and I have now got past the foreword of my 'tract' on the subject - we will see national currencies based upon 'unitised' land value, and an international reserve currency based upon 'unitised' energy in one form or another, while transactions generally will be made by reference to an 'Energy Standard' ie a standard unit of energy in an amount which is meaningful to everyday experience (eg energy equivalent to 10 Kilo Watt Hours, or the energy equivalent to the fuel use of a litre of n-Octane).
The necessary framework of trust will be a Credit Clearing Union, backed by mutual guarantees and provisions into default pools, and it is this framework which enables the monetisation of our credit.
The point is that credit created by banks is based upon a claim over someone else's credit. ie a claim over credit issued by someone else. This 'claim over a claim' is essentially two negatives creating a false positive, because credit intermediaries back the credit they create with little or no 'money's worth' of capital.
The credit necessary for the circulation of goods and services and creation of productive assets requires no investment/deposits, although it does require a trust framework. Credit backed by the use value of productive assets, on the other hand, does require investment/deposits.
The reason why virtually all schools of Economics - apart from the modern monetary theorists/ cartalists - fuck it up is that they assume conventional money to be a debt instrument, when it is in fact the opposite polarity ie a credit instrument.
This ideological assumption is of course aimed at justifying the otherwise unjustifiable - ie the privatisation of the Credit Commons - and at obscuring an inconvenient reality. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Doesn't the internet make disintermediating banks more plausible again?
Peer to Peer Finance -which is not to be confused with Peer to Peer lending like Zopa - is what I have been working on this past 10 years, with some seed funding a couple of years ago from the Norwegian government.
If I am right, then Money 3.0 will be the outcome. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Because, trade used to be based on letters of credit which could be issued by anyone and had value depending on the credit of the issuer. At some time these began to always pass via banks. Doesn't the internet make disintermediating banks more plausible again?
Every odd Joe won't be able to have his letter of credit accepted - he'll have to go through a trusted middleman who will vouch for the payment. Either that, or he will have to pay in some commodity currency that the recipient of the payment trusts to hold value.
Modern reserve banking partly nationalises the role of middleman through the depositor guarantee.
And by and large, the problem is not in that part of the monetary system. By and large, the problem is in the part of the monetary system where the remaining private middlemen have abused the trust placed in them by the general public to create counterfeit money, which they have then mixed with the money that the sovereign guarantees.
So preventing a repeat performance requires at least one of two things:
Firstly, I have first hand knowledge - including direct contact with the general manager of the central bank - of the ongoing 'FactoRepo' initiative in Ecuador whereby any VAT-registered firm will be able to discount VAT invoices directly with the Central Bank, and thereby access working capital.
Since Ecuador is in fact 'dollarised', what FactoRepo will achieve for their Central Bank is a reduction in their reliance on dollars from a gross figure to a net figure during whatever settlement cycle they opt for. Reduced reliance on the Fed is politically attractive.
It also reduces reliance on private banks as credit intermediaries, but there is a potential role for them as service provider managers. Of course, a FactoRepo technique would work perfectly well anywhere there is a VAT system, but I suspect that banks would insist on extracting a monopoly rent that rendered it unattractive to users.
Secondly, this could be a transitional stage to a true 'Peer to Peer' credit clearing union. In a true P2P model, businesses would issue mutually guaranteed undated credits/IOUs subject to 'guarantee limits' managed by service providers, whose agreed costs would be shared by a suitable service charge.
The mutual guarantee would be backed by payments made by both sellers and buyers into a default 'Pool' in common ownership, and the service providers would receive a share of this payment after defaults, thus aligning their interests.
In terms of settlement of credit, any payments (which are not strictly necessary provided guarantee payments and service charges are paid) would be applied on a FIFO basis to the longest outstanding credits first.
In addition 'settlement agent' software eg Ripple Pay could seek out 'chains'. So if A owes B owes C owes D owes A then these obligations may be netted out down the chain. This is exactly how the bilateral 'off-exchange' Brent/BFOE crude oil forward contract works on contract expiry, so that open bilateral Brent contracts may be 'booked out' and price differences settled in dollars.
The outcome for (say) Ecuador would be that no actual Fed dollars would then be needed at all, and the US dollar would then be used - in the absence of anything more credible - only as a pure, abstract, 'Value Standard' or unit of measure.
For users, any excess in the Pool could be distributed equally as a dividend, and of course this would reduce negative balances and increase positive balances. The outcome would be a net transfer from those who use the guarantee to those who provide it, thereby sharing the fruits of the 'Credit Commons'. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Say you have an invoice of 100 in a place with 25 % VAT. 20 %, or 20, of that are your VAT invoice.
Since you get this money back from the government, you can, in principle, use it as collateral for credit.
When trust totally breaks down, panicing people queue up at their bank to withdraw all their trust in the form of cash - the wallet part. What they are saying is "We don't believe you!" You can't be me, I'm taken
But because of fractional reserve banking there s never enough cash, by definition. By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
It would be ironic if they were to precipitate the very catastrophe they're trying to avert.
Time to read The Economic Consequences of the Peace. By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
All credit that third parties trust will be repaid is the creation of money.
That's how the counterfeit money disappears so fast when trust in the banking sector blows up.
As long as the prices of assets which banks have financed are increasing, they can function effectively with almost no reserve. But if assets they have financed fall in value by more than their reserve capital they are technically insolvent, but their insolvency may not be revealed until they are unable to meet an obligation. Once this happens with a large bank, the shit storm begins.
I do not give a lot of details.. I thought it was not really necessary to explain the details of how tehy do it.
It would require another paragraph and I tried to remain as short as possible.
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