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There's no end of the Euro or end of the EU in sight. What's in sight is an end of the European social model and a lost decade. See here.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:23:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we avoid a lost decade given the debt overhang? Seriously?

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:25:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is more painful? What is more fair? A 25% reduction of income and asset values or no income, assets or benefits for the 25% less connected of the population?

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:27:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
we can increase taxes.

It's good for budgetary balances.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:30:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not on wages, not on mobile capital. So taxes on land values.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:33:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Taxes on land values are politically impossible.

But a debt/equity swap would work.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 05:45:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
or make capital less mobile.

A tax on carbon content of imports would do wonders as well.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 05:48:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
make capital less mobile

Cannot do that within the Eurozone.

A tax on carbon content of imports would do wonders as well

Are you really not aware that the problem is internal Eurozone trade imbalances, not the external trade balance of the Eurozone?

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 05:56:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
people chose to vote for right wing policies and ignore the consequences by borrowing unsustainably (or, in the Germans' cases, tightening their belts, relatively speaking, and feeling smug about it).

My friends on the Oil Drum will link that to a last spurt of cheap energy 'probably in the form of the boom in Chinese coal production) which is now over.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:28:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Politics is hopeless and so is the European Union's macroeconomic stance. We're going to burn in a flash of self-righteous fiscal austerity.

Look, I don't have any debt but the consequences of waiting for default or 10 years of doldrums to reduce the debt overhand might be that I'd be out of a job soon with no prospects but emigrating to another continent. So I'm willing to endure a loss of purchasing power. After all, my income can support higher taxes, too.

Inflation is destructive of incomes and asset values, deflation is destructive of the human spirit.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 03:12:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I could live with a lost decade -or even decades- if that meant keeping most of the social model.

But to turn into Latvia so that we can show our jansenist selves that HEY, is the biggest recession in 70 years all you've got, nah we won't have more than 3% deficit for even a minute... That would be truly awful.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:28:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One of ZP's stimulus measures was a 420€ monthly stipend for the long-term unemployed who were not antitled to any more benefits. Removing that is now on the table. When the measure was introduced a million people were eligible. Now it might be 2 million. And 1 million families have nobody employed.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:40:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I totally agree with your point-of-view about social models, and I live in a high-crime area of one of the poorest American cities. So social fabric means a lot to me.

Thinking about this in a larger context, it's implied in a global market that there will be convergence between certain sets of workers between countries, rather than convergence between, say, a blue-collar worker and an elite worker in that country.

Falling real income is already implied by the economic model. But if the elites don't keep things stable with an INCREASE in social spending, then things will devolve rapidly.

Check out this article this morning:

http://euobserver.com/19/30089

Part of the discord appears to stem from a demand from Berlin that German parliamentary approval be granted before countries can tap the support package, with German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble citing national constitutional requirements.

Mr Schauble also raised the prospect of mimicking Germany's constitutional spending brake across the eurozone. Last year, the country enshrined in its constitution a law forbidding the federal government from running a deficit of more than 0.35 percent of GDP by 2016.

Germany seems to be channeling California. Straitjackets, get your straitjackets here!

by Upstate NY on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 12:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Upstate NY:
Part of the discord appears to stem from a demand from Berlin that German parliamentary approval be granted before countries can tap the support package, with German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble citing national constitutional requirements.
I'm sorry but other EU member states shouldn't be subject to the German parliament.

If they want the EU Parliament to control the tapping of an EU-wide fund that's a different matter.

There is no evidence that the current German political class has any willingness to work with the rest of the EU.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 12:39:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EUobserver / Eurozone ministers aim barbed words at Germany

Asked whether he felt these comments were helpful, Mr Juncker said: "In my opinion, certain people would do better to think before they speak ...sometimes they would do better to keep their mouths shut."

An aide to the long-serving politician later insisted to AFP that the comments were directed at Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann, German central bank head Axel Weber and ECB chief economist Juergen Stark, all of which have recently spoken out against aspects of the extraordinary measures taken to shore up the finances of Greece and the rest of the eurozone.

His frustration appears to be shared by the caretaker Belgian prime minister, Yves Leterme. "We finalised an agreement to defend the euro. We cannot, like Madame Merkel, put into question its feasibility," Mr Leterme said on Monday.



By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 12:43:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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