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Onward to 1930.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon May 17th, 2010 at 05:42:09 PM EST
[Europe.Is.Doomed™ Alert]
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon May 17th, 2010 at 05:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The death of the European dream

While the EU's foreign admirers are on the defensive, international Eurosceptics are in the ascendancy. Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform, a pro-EU think-tank, says he has been struck on his recent travels by the growing disdain for Europe in Delhi, Beijing and Washington. "We're seen as locked into permanent economic and demographic decline, and our pretensions to hard power are treated with contempt," he laments.

A few years ago Jeremy Rifkin, an American author, published a book called The European Dream, which made a great splash in Brussels. Mr Rifkin, who perhaps not coincidentally also wrote a book called The End of Work, argued that Europe was a model for the future. "While the American spirit is languishing, a new European dream is being born," he wrote. "It is a dream far better suited to the next stage in the human journey - one that promises to bring humanity to a global consciousness befitting an increasingly interconnected society."

Reading those words today, I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

All of this because the euro reduced its overvaluation by nicely losing 15% against the yuan?


Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 05:38:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there a realistic scenario to avert the end of the European social model?

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 05:45:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Convincing people to vote for left-wing governments would be a start...

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:59:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First left-wing parties would have to abandon the Neoclassical economics consensus.

The Counter-Enlightenment, its Economic Program - and the Classical Alternative By Michael Hudson (February 5, 2010)

The last few years have seen demoralized Social Democratic and Labour parties fall into disarray throughout the world. Retreating from the economic program that powered their takeoff a century ago, they have lost their traditional constituencies. Their golden age was an outgrowth of classical political economy from Adam Smith via John Stuart Mill to Progressive Era reformers advocating progressive taxation of land and other wealth, public infrastructure investment at subsidized prices, price regulation of monopolies, and public banking reforms to socialize the financial system.

Today, the parties of the left and even the centre have reversed the reform agenda advocated a century ago in the Progressive Era. They have endorsed a tax shift off property and finance onto labor and consumers; privatization of public infrastructure and enterprises; and deregulation of monopolies, above all that of banking and high finance. The result is an almost universal anti-government (and indeed, pro-rentier) model that leaves resource allocation and planning centralized in the hands of a financial sector that is being deregulated rather than steered along the social lines anticipated a century ago.

...

... We are having a meeting of European Social Democratic parties next May to draft a common program. We plan to reintroduce the classical economic reform of the tax system.

I have seen no discussion of this in the press, except for my own write-ups in the Financial Times. There is a case of cognitive dissidence when it comes to structural financial and fiscal reform. Most people are not aware that there really is a workable alternative, and indeed one that was viewed for a century as being the free market alternative - a market free of unearned income and "empty" pricing. The problem is that students no longer are taught that economic thinkers have spent the last seven centuries discussing better modes of taxation, banking and pricing. They came to a similar conclusion, based on the ability to distinguish between economically necessary costs and income, and unnecessary costs. The aim was to complete what was viewed as the economic program of industrial capitalism: to throw off the remaining legacy of feudalism, above all the landlord class that used to be called the idle rich, but also predatory bankers. These two classes now have joined forces to become a new aggressive power - financial speculators unnecessary for the industrial economy to operate but actually are slowing it down.

The most important plank of our entire program concerns the tax system. ...

This is going to be the plank of our reform program - reforming the reformers - against which banks and the EU will fight most viciously. But fiscal reform must be a key element in financial reform, because the two forms of reform are symbiotic. By taxing the land, we are preventing its rental value from being capitalized into bank loans. Our aim is to lead bank credit to focus on actually creating new means of production, not simply bolstering the privatized market price of unproductive, extractive privileges and property claims.



By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:07:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
left alternatives to the SocDem neo-liberal catimiti...

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
by redstar on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 10:27:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Who?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 10:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In France, Front de Gauche. In Germany, Die Linke. In the Netherlands, the Socialist Party. just speaking of Neighbors...

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
by redstar on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 10:34:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hudson:
I have seen no discussion of this in the press, except for my own write-ups in the Financial Times.
FT.com / UK - Eastern Europe won't pay what it can't pay (April 8 2010) [my emphasis]
Greece is just the first in a series of European debt bombs about to go off. Mortgage debts in the post-communist economies and Iceland are more explosive. Although most of these countries are not in the eurozone, their debts are largely denominated in euros. Some 87 per cent of Latvia's debts are in euros or other foreign currencies, and are owed mainly to Swedish banks, while Hungary and Romania owe euro-debts mainly to Austrian banks. These governments have been borrowing [from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund] not to finance a budget deficit, as in Greece, but to support their exchange rates and thereby prevent a private-sector default to foreign banks.
What!?
Bankers in Sweden and Austria, Germany and Britain are about to discover that extending credit to nations that cannot (or will not) pay may be their problem, not that of their debtors. No one wants to accept the fact that debts that cannot be paid, will not be. Someone must bear the cost as debts go into default or are written down, to be paid in sharply depreciated currencies, and many legal experts find debt agreements calling for repayment in euros unenforceable. Every sovereign nation has the right to legislate its own debt terms, and the coming currency re-alignments and debt write-downs will be much more than mere "haircuts".

...

Another by-product of the Great Depression in the US and Canada was to free mortgage debtors from personal liability, making it possible to recover from bankruptcy. Foreclosing banks can take possession of collateral property, but do not have any further claim on the mortgagees. This practice - grounded in common law - shows how North America has freed itself from the legacy of feudal-style creditor power and the debtors' prisons that made earlier European debt laws so harsh.

However, in most of Europe it is still the case that people remain personally liable for their mortgage debt in case of default even after foreclosure. In other words, strategic default by individuals is impossible.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 11:42:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
These governments have been borrowing [from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund] not to finance a budget deficit, as in Greece, but to support their exchange rates and thereby prevent a private-sector default to foreign banks.

What!?

Why do I fail to be surprised?

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 11:47:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
Another by-product of the Great Depression in the US and Canada was to free mortgage debtors from personal liability, making it possible to recover from bankruptcy.
See also this thread.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 11:47:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On Hungary in particular, see DoDo's Hungary in danger of bankruptcy? (October 10th, 2008) and this thread from 2 weeks later.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 12:04:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would not be much better. At least in Finland the left is the strongest anti-property-tax party there is. Even the right has some flexibility on this issue.
by kjr63 on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:16:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Look at the Nordics.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 10:05:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pucktvåa... ;p

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 07:16:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hide this from ATinNM! He's learning Swedish - fy sjutton!

"It is typically Scandinavian to swear with numbers." citation needed

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed May 19th, 2010 at 11:22:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course there is. Not to bang my own pots (or yes, actually), look at Sweden. Norway. Finland. Denmark. Hell, look at the Netherlands.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 07:13:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So who will turn fascist? (ie who's really less virtuous?)

And can we maybe say there is a difference between worrying about deficits after 2 years of public deficit at >10% of GDP and worrying about deficits before doing such spending?

Since we all agree that the problem is not budgetary policies, but the lack of financial regulation, and targetted taxes on the right kind of people and incomes, why are we accepting the debate on spending cuts (ie and making the link between spending cuts and "doom in Europe" legitimate)?

There is a simple answer: increased taxes.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:24:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Deficits are commensurate with GDP contraction. The 3% deficit cap is inconsistent with anything but the shallowest of recessions, and most of it is a combination of "automatic stabilizers" and lost revenue.

Trichet cannot at the same time call this the biggest crisis since WWI and call governments weak.

There's only one thing it makes sense to raise taxes on right now: land values.

Taxing labour would be asinine with unemployment at twice the usual rate. Taxing capital will just lead to capital flight in the free market we have engineered for ourselves. So you have to tax immovable assets.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 02:32:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a simple answer: increased taxes.

When you're in a liquidity trap, fiddling with the tax code does you very little good: The problem is that one part of the private sector - the businessmen - are neutering another part of the private sector - the engineers.

The solution to that is for the state to take a more active and explicit role in maintaining industrial production. That happens on the sovereign expenditure side of the equation, not on the tax income side.

You won't get me to say that tax hikes on the wealthy are a bad idea, but right now it's distinctly secondary to the need for the public sector to start explicitly underwriting industrial production.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 07:36:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Finland, this is being done through the SHOKs - or centers of strategic excellence - that bring industry and research academia together with state funding to vastly improve the innovation chain. Consortiums are shared equally between the 2 sides, as is IPR benefit, and focus on a particular area. There is, for example, a Smart Grids consortium within the Energy and Environment SHOK.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 07:43:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
the need for the public sector to start explicitly underwriting industrial production.

yes, but _ exclusively green_ industry, otherwise we remain in the same old paradigm of more polluting car sales making for good numbers, (and no regard for'externalities', like peoples' health, at all).

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:02:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Colbertism is back in fashion : Sarkozy has announced a target of 25% increase in French industrial production in the next six years.

(why six? what's wrong with a "five year plan"?)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:23:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but again, given that the problem is debt overhang, it's still better if that public spending is financed by current resources (which are being unused because of the liquidity trap anyway) than by creating more debt.

As the current crisis is showing, markets are showing at least some unwillingness to finance public spending (in some places). That door being closed, you can either go the political route by printing money, or the political route by raising taxes.

Raising taxes is compatible with German neuroses.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:02:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, according to you German neuroses are incompatible with both inflation and taxes. They don't appear to be incompatible with bailouts for the German banks or with collapse of GDP in other European countries. Why do dangerous neuroses have to be countenanced?

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:12:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the bank bailouts were presented as absolutely indispensable to avoid immediate apocalypse, and the costs were never made clear (remember how much emphasis there was on how these would be "interest carrying loans" and the like) - and they are still massively hated by the populace.

Here, the stabilization fund has similarly come at a time when it was the supposed alternative to some kind of collapse, but it's been sold as a sign of duty (to the European ideal) rather than a vital interest, and the (much more certain) profitability of the loans has been underplayed.

And note that in the two cases, the interests of the financial world are radically opposite - in the case of the bank bailout, the markets had no interest to continue to cause unrest; here there is the obvious benefit of cost cutting across the board, lower wages, pensions etc, and the added bonus of bringing down to size the European social model.

Collapsing GDP in one country is unlikely to touch the citizens of another that much, unfortunately.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:59:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Poorly, stupidly and corruptly done, which seems to be the current fashion, this would result in products which are not purchased, squandering resources and capital, which would lead to inflation, but it would provide employment.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:14:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, there are no moron-proof ways to deal with an economic slump. More generally, there are no moron-proof systems, full stop. And even if there were, the universe is in the business of developing ever better morons. The same is true for cronyism, of course.

Poorly, stupidly and corruptly done, any government action will be a disaster.

The reason many of the classical liberals of the Enlightenment opposed government intervention to the extent that they did was that poor, corrupt and stupid governments were the historical norm.

Honesty, integrity and competence in your legislature: Accept no substitute.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 11:29:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Moronic seems to be the actual mean, and we all know that we always have reversion to the mean. History explained.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 11:53:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Honesty, integrity and competence in your legislature: Accept no substitute.

When you have a choice of a candidate that is honest, competent and competent things are easy. Things are seldom easy. Gresham's Law has been at work too long.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 07:22:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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