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In those days, the ambitious and greedy were intent on creating wealth, whereas these days they are focused on being wealthy... no creation required.
Wealth capture is not wealth creation, as Jérôme used to say when the problem was not looming inflation.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 05:58:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But Jérôme himself also has quite an issue with the problem of inflation, hewing largely to the German line.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
by redstar on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 06:39:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's why I quoted Trichet at the top level when he says inflation hurts the poor and the working class - that's always been Jérôme's argument.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 07:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
a little bit of inflation (say 3-7% per year) is good for the poor and bad for the rich; more is the opposite. Sadly the moderate inflation f the 60s turned into more (and stagflation) in the 70s, and the elites used that to go for no inflation...

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 07:18:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
has an explicit target of 2% inflation and no other explicit remit. No one is accepting this 3-7% target anywhere "serious" Brussels-consensus types congregate, and ECB monetary policy reflects that anti-growth (well, anti-growth with exception of German export growth) consensus.

In exchange for this, we were imposed, largely by the Germans, the Growth and Stability pact (the growth part being a joke and the stability only for the Germans, apparently), a monstrostity rightly refered to, by the economist and former President of the European Commission, as the Growth and Stupidity Pact.

I also note that France's inflation rate has been under the 2% level, if not on a year to year basis then on a consistent (and certainly rolling multi-year average) basis since Euro convergence criteria were established when Mitterand was President at the start of the 1990's and that, since then, France's economic growth has been sclerotic for most of the period. Contrast with economic growth in prior periods (1950-1980) when inflation was in the zone you are talking about (even in the 1970's on average France's inflation was under 10%) and an independent central bank was able to use inflation, along with fiscal policy, to manage the economic cycle.

Now, it is German exporters who manage France's business cycle, and not just France's, but also Italy's, Spain's, Greece's. And, they think they are the virtuous ones.

In fact, sclerotic growth in France (and, I would strongly suggest, in most of the Eurozone) goes hand in hand with over-eager German-inspired monetary policy bordering on psychosis. Unfortunately, as the article Mig discusses from Der Spiegel demonstrates, the Germans appear to be in a delusionary world fraught with inflation monsters behind every corner...unfortunately, this joke they are telling themselves is on us, not on them.

We'd all be better off if, instead of Greece reverting to the Drachma, Germany reverted to the Mark.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:16:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
redstar:
Noting, in passing, that the ECB has an explicit target of 2% inflation and no other explicit remit. No one is accepting this 3-7% target anywhere "serious" Brussels-consensus types congregate, and ECB monetary policy reflects that anti-growth (well, anti-growth with exception of German export growth) consensus.
Note that the ECB's explicit remit is one of "price stability", and that the 2% was pulled out of thin air by the ECB governing council, under their sole authority, and they could just as well change it.

ECB: Definition of price stability

Quantitative definition While the Treaty clearly establishes the primary objective of the ECB, it does not give a precise definition of what is meant by price stability.

The ECB's Governing Council has announced a quantitative definition of price stability:
  • "Price stability is defined as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%."
The Governing Council has also clarified that, in the pursuit of price stability, it aims to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Also look at the Educational section of the ECB's website: Inflation and the euro

Have you seen the inflation monster?
Watch our cartoon on price stability



By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:50:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
redstar:
In fact, sclerotic growth in France (and, I would strongly suggest, in most of the Eurozone) goes hand in hand with over-eager German-inspired monetary policy bordering on psychosis.
And in Germany, too, right?

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:55:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we have 7% inflation for 5 years, then?

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:17:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, that's why it won't be done.

It's not even protecting the intelligent wealthy, who know how to capitalize on opportunities economic growth tends to afford and know how to mitigate inflation-related risks.

This draconian monetary policy protects only old money, lazy old money.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:21:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
a little bit of inflation (say 3-7% per year) is good for the poor and bad for the rich; more is the opposite.

Funny, 8 % per year is the ballpark figure I came up with for a manageable €-zone inflation baseline.

Of course, that's all long-term. Short-term, the solution is still a Greek sovereign default.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:20:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's good to see Jérôme safely back among the ranks of the unserious.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 08:34:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
:)

I don't deny the German neuroses; I just don't think they're the thing we should focus on today: they are a convenient scapegoat for other problems.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:05:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They control the EU macroeconomic policy apparatus.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 09:08:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Again, the only thing they want is budget balance. It's the neolibs who say this can only be achieved by spending cuts.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 10:01:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're not pillorying them for the insistence on cycle-average budget balance.

We're pillorying them for their inflation target, and for their insistence on year-on-year budget balance.

Oh, and for the flippin' hypocrisy in demanding year-on-year budget balance from brown people who speak funny while running cycle-averaged deficits themselves...

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 18th, 2010 at 11:20:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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