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The only "explanation" I can come up with is that Zapatero is afraid of a flight of private capital if taxes for the rich are introduced now and that any (small) gain in tax revenue will be more than offset by the deflationary impact of a flight of private capital and an increase in state borrowing costs.

The only consolation I can offer you is that the absolute sums seem small in comparison to the size of the Spanish economy and a .5% reduction in GDP is tiny compared to the 9% of GDP equivalent which has been taken out of the Irish economy by the Irish Government here (and with the EU Commission threatening that more will be needed).  Even the Caja bail-out is tiny by Irish standards with a small business bank like Anglo-Irish bank likely to cost taxpayers a cool 30 Billion for no particular public policy reason.

Given my impression that Zapatero is generally relatively progressive, my (most hopeful) conclusion would be that he thinks that a small symbolic retrenchment now will head of the need for a more dramatic retrenchment later even if at the cost of conceding some ground to neo-liberal shock doctrine ideology.   The problem is that one bite rarely satisfies the blood suckers, and once you give them the taste of blood they keep coming back for more.

So it becomes a question of where does Zapatero think he is going to be able to draw the line.  If this is it, and there is no further retrenchment/bail-out, then Spain could be getting off very lightly indeed.  If the Eurozone as a whole can reverse this momentum through some variant of the Merkel Market Mayhem Mitigation Measures we could even see the EU leading the process of Global financial reform, although I don't see how this can be done without a Tobin Tax, and that isn't even included in Obama's signature Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009

Being very optimistic for a moment, perhaps Zapatero can use this relatively minimal fiscal retrenchment to pivot onto some serious market reform measures...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 05:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The only consolation I can offer you is that the absolute sums seem small in comparison to the size of the Spanish economy and a .5% reduction in GDP is tiny compared to the 9% of GDP equivalent which has been taken out of the Irish economy by the Irish Government here (and with the EU Commission threatening that more will be needed).

I find the 0,5% GDP loss estimate laughable. It will be much more.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 06:01:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The only "explanation" I can come up with is that Zapatero is afraid...

That he's afraid is clear from the claim that he said he didn't want to be seen as demagogical.

But there's another "explanation" that better fits the facts: Zapatero is clueless.

So it becomes a question of where does Zapatero think he is going to be able to draw the line.  If this is it, and there is no further retrenchment/bail-out, then Spain could be getting off very lightly indeed.  If the Eurozone as a whole can reverse this momentum through some variant of the Merkel Market Mayhem Mitigation Measures we could even see the EU leading the process of Global financial reform, although I don't see how this can be done without a Tobin Tax, and that isn't even included in Obama's signature Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009

Germany has the upper hand now and they are strengthening the Growth and Stability (Suicide) Pact mechanisms to enforce fiscal austerity at the wrong time (the economy is not out of recession yet!). I don't care about Merkel's PR (naked short bans, schmans) while they continue to espouse faulty macroeconomic and monetary policy.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 06:25:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Merkel bans naked shorts of banks on her own. Let Zapatero impose "emergency" capital controls on his own. But perhaps he is concerned that such action would be sabotaged by elements in his government. Now is a time when governments most desperately need leaders who understand what is happening with the economy and can explain it clearly to the people. I believe I stressed the importance of discrediting the current economic paradigm so as to enable intelligent response to economic crisis back in the summer of 2008.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 11:30:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now is a time when governments most desperately need leaders who understand what is happening with the economy and can explain it clearly to the people.

Zapatero is not your man.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 03:01:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guess "socialists" no longer do economics.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 03:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those that do, do neoclassical economics. But Zapatero is a lawyer.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 06:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Along with NuLab, etc. etc. But a Socialist with Neo-Classical Economics is an oxymoron.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat May 22nd, 2010 at 10:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A socialist with neo-classical economics is "serious", and a moron.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 23rd, 2010 at 03:11:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
'A socialist with neo-classical economics is a "serious", and a moron.'  Fixed.


As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun May 23rd, 2010 at 09:16:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn, beat me to it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun May 23rd, 2010 at 10:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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