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We got fiscal austerity, and Morgan Kelly even gives the Government some credit for that - proving that he isn't some raving socialist, or worse, a Keynesian...

What he can't understand, as a good capitalist, is why the Government would want to turn private debt into pubic debt and thus CREATE a sovereign debt crisis when there need be none.

What is the ideological/legal objection to turning bonds into shares?  Debt equity swaps are a staple of any crisis management tool-kit.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue May 25th, 2010 at 09:05:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But fiscal austerity, by contracting GDP, is just going to make debt-to-GDP look worse.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 25th, 2010 at 09:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The current focus is on the Government borrowing requirement, which at 14% last year, topped even Greece.  As long as you reduce the borrowing requirement faster than GDP this ratio will look better...

In any case, as I said in the diary, the real problem isn't the real economy which is set to grow (marginally) this year despite the Government cutbacks.  The real problem (in Ireland's case) is the taking on of an unsustainable debt burden.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue May 25th, 2010 at 09:24:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank Schnittger:
The real problem (in Ireland's case) is the taking on of an unsustainable debt burden.
That wasn't a problem when the unsustainable aggregate (household, private, and public sectors together) debt load was taken on. Only when the private sector blew up and the public sector agreed to take the private debt onto its balance sheet. Then it became a problem of public debt and an excuse for dismantling the social safety net.

Because as long as there was a bubble everyone was happy piling up debt to 200% of GDP.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 25th, 2010 at 10:06:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
Because as long as there was a bubble everyone was happy piling up debt to 200% of GDP.

No everybody wasn't happy because first time house buyers, in particular, were finding it impossible to get onto the housing ladder given the cost of buying or renting a house.

But there is a world of difference between people borrowing to buy a home and the sort of speculative "investment" the big banks and developers were getting into.

For one thing, there is no Nama for house buyers caught up in negative equity, unaffordable and rising interest rates, and redundancy.

Little people having their homes foreclosed is business as usual.  When the big banks do the same the same distressed borrowers - amongst others - are supposed to bail them out?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue May 25th, 2010 at 12:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the ideological/legal objection to turning bonds into shares?

The objection is that the bankers are seen to be at the very pinnacle of the advanced capitalist system and to be acting in the interests of the wealthiest members of the society. The whole purpose of the society is to enrich the top. Then the rest can bask in the reflected glory of the wealth they have accumulated. To allow the top banks to default would be akin to the Bolsheviks killing the entire family of Tzar Nicholas. The form of government may have changed but basic attitudes obviously have not. At least not for the governing class. When the average Irish voter feels the full impact of what is being done things may be different.

Is there any mechanism to bring down this government and force new elections?  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue May 25th, 2010 at 01:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARGeezer:
Is there any mechanism to bring down this government and force new elections?  

The Greens are the junior partners in the coalition Government and they conducted a mid-term review following a party conference last autumn. I genuinely thought they would reject Nama and precipitate a general election but they chose, instead, to go back into Government following some paltry concessions on fox hunting etc.

Now both parties know they will be devastated if they call an election any time soon and so are cli9nging on for dear life.  Indeed the Minister, Eamonn Ryan, quoted in the Diary is a Green party Minister and leading apologist for the Government.

So the short answer is no, this Government will probably run its full term, after which Fianna Fail will no longer be the largest party, and the Greens will be obliterated.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue May 25th, 2010 at 02:17:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
after which Fianna Fail will no longer be the largest party,

I wouldn't be too sure of that, and it's not clear that the most likely party to take their place, Fine Gael, would be any better. They might be worse.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 26th, 2010 at 04:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no hopes for Fine Gael...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed May 26th, 2010 at 04:45:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any possibility of a backbench revolt of Greens, possibly with some FFs, bringing this government down? Are there any prominent Green supporters outside the government who could speak out with effect? It is one thing to mortgage the future to save your cronies if you can bring it off, quite another to mortgage your future when the attempt is doomed. I think it is an excellent thing that so much of this debt has to roll over this year. That might shorten the suffering of the Irish people.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed May 26th, 2010 at 10:35:02 PM EST
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