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His majority was dependent on the PP being in opposition to everyone else so that a minority government was viable. The economic crisis has antagonised everyone, from left to right.

The PP is still the ugly party (in fact, the recent corruption and spionage scandals around it just make it uglier) and its leader Rajoy still has a lower popularity rating than Zapatero, but at the moment it seems Zapatero is exhausted and everyone would rather have an election to clear the air.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 27th, 2010 at 09:49:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I haven't been following this that tightly.  What has the United Left (IU) been  doing on this?

I have to wonder whether they could get a pick up in support out of this.  They've trended to historical lows in the last couple of years, but in the 1980s they'd get up to a fifth of the vote. They don't seem to have the same historical baggage as die Linke.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu May 27th, 2010 at 01:12:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think IU leadership have the credibility, media presence or charisma or their 1980's leaders. Plus, there general shift to a service-sector economy I think undermines the social base of traditional left parties such as the communists who are the core of IU. As you know, in 2008 they got nearly wiped out, getting seats in parliament only in the two largest provinces, Madrid and Barcelona, and the latter one by their green-left coalition partner IC-V. With 6% of the vote they would have gotten 4-5 seats in 3 provinces.

The IC-V story is interesting because at one point IU was competing with IC-V in Catalonia but the more modern IC-V ate their lunch. I personally think that some sort of green left is the only viable ideological alternative to the left of the PSOE, but the green parties themselves are extremely fractured.

However, the "Left" is broader than IU, including (as quoted in the diary) ERC (Catalan Nationalists), BNG (Galician Nationalists), ICV (Catalan Green Left), and Nafarroa Bai (Navarran nationalists). They could potentially do much better is IU entered in coalition with all of them, but IU is ultimately a Spanish party...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 27th, 2010 at 02:47:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ManfromMiddletown:
They've trended to historical lows in the last couple of years, but in the 1980s they'd get up to a fifth of the vote.
More like "up to a tenth". In the 1980's they never polled higher than 9%.

Their highest vote share (as IU) was in the 1994 European elections, where they polled 13.44%. In a General Election their highest result was 10.54% in 1996, which was also theit highst-ever vote count at 2.6 million.

The highest result of the Communist Party was in the 1979 municipal elections with 12.7%, and their highest General election result was 10.77% in 1979. In think IU was created in response to the PCE's electoral collapse in 1982 (4% of the vote - but that's the year of Felipe González's landslide win with the PSOE).

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 28th, 2010 at 03:53:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I stand corrected.  It though that it was more like 15% in 1982.

Prior to the breakup between the unions and parties in the late 1980s, the strength of the PCE was bolstered by the number of works council meetings won by the CCOO.  They had a social base.  The same was true for PSOE, but at the start in the union elections CCOO was stronger than UGT (connected to PSOE).    

I'm more interested in that than electoral politics.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri May 28th, 2010 at 02:37:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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