In other words, if in 2009 the installation was 10GW, in 2010 one should expect 15GW, in 2011 22.5GW, and so on, and the rate should slow down only when penetration is a substantial fraction of the total... By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
I guess you can always do a moving average. By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
Regarding real long-term trends, I would agree that a logistic curve fits both emergence/maturing and phaseout best, but Marchetti curves seem too simplicistic. In Luís's diary, the oil shocks are named as explanation for deviation; on one hand, methinks a lot more reasons can throw development off the Marchetti track (rule changes being one, see wind power in Denmark), on the other hand, I rather doubt that all significant energy modes will peak at the same market penetration level (50%). *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
*Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
