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... longer than you can remain solvent." - Keynes

Less flippantly, if most major market actors "know" that the US$ is "safe" then that is what they will buy during a panic.

Moreover, if everybody knows that everybody else "knows" that the US$ is "safe" then the US$ really will be safe during a panic, at least compared to everything else. That's an unstable sort of "safe," though, because any time a sufficiently serious actor decides to call the emperor on his nakedness, it stops being safe.

Oh, and then you have the fact that most transcontinental trade is denominated in US$, and it takes time to change denomination on all your trade contracts, so you want to have a war chest in order to avoid being squeezed between short-term contracts with your suppliers and long-term contracts with your customers, if the reference currency goes down (or vice versa if the reference currency goes up, but for the US$ that does not seem a serious prospect...).

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 04:30:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With Oil being denominated in $, everyone who needs oil will hedge against Oil price volatility in $ by buying ahead in $ and buying $ to do so.  - e.g. Ryanair usually hedges up to 75% of requirements at least 12-18 months in advance and thus there is a huge incentive to keep buying $ no matter what..

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 04:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks, it's very clear now, especially what leverage the $ being denominated as oil value metric gives.

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 05:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks, Jake, very helpful.

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 05:43:39 PM EST
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