Nevertheless his stimulus, health care, and finance reform wins probably represent the single most successful first 18 months in power of any President since Johnson - which may not be saying much.  IF, and it is a big IF, he can add Climate Change and Immigration to the list prior to November he can claim to be the most successful President in his first 2 years - perhaps ever.

What does it take to get the Dem base motivated to the same extent as the GOP?  What does success look like for Dems generally?

OK its the economy, stupid, but he still has a few months for that to improve, and he can make the case that policy initiatives take years to take effect and we are still living with the aftermath of the Bush Depression.

I suspect Obama will seriously get his political ass in gear from now on - and as we have seen - he is a formidable campaigner when he gets going.

I remain a (relative) optimist.  The tea partiers have peaked too soon and have saddled the GOP with some bad candidates, sound-bites, and policies. When the campaign gets serious in October I suspect the momentum will have reversed, and while the Dems will still lose seats, I suspect the losses will not be as great as previous mid-terms after the first 2 years of a presidency.

Its no harm to alarm the Dem base as Gibbs has done.  There may have been too much self-satisfied complacency.  Are Hispanics really going to give the GOP a free ride?  Are African Americans?  Are those dependent on health care and unemployment benefit?

Employment and household debt are the two main headwinds Obama faces.  However I think he can still make the case he is working on it and needs more time.  If the BP spill has also been fixed, he can also claim a slightly better track record than Bush on Katrina.

Obama still has 50% favourability on Pollster.com.  The trend had actually turned upward after health care passed until the deepwater horizon oil spill came along.  I would expect the numbers to start going up again if the spill is fixed, the pollution is being actively cleaned up, financial regulation is passed, and Obama can avoid further hits on Immigration and climate change.

Those last two I would see as the real risks to Obama.  They may be two bridges too far in the current climate for his blue dogs and moderates in particular.  Whatever he does, he needs to do it before the summer recess. September/October is no time for difficult legislative initiatives.  After the elections, he can always amend the filibuster rule...

Index of Frank's Diaries