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Here's a question: Suppose the U.S. economy goes (further) into the dumper. But the dollar is "the" international currency. I wonder if the big holders of dollars and the big sellers of dollar-denominated goods (oil, for instance), could force a separation of the externally held dollars from the U.S. held dollars.

So maybe China uses U.S. paper to buy oil from Saudi Arabia, which uses it to buy wheat from Ukraine, say, while the greenbacks used in daily U.S. transactions are devalued in accordance with the economy... I have no idea how you would make the division, though...

by asdf on Sat Jul 17th, 2010 at 06:58:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Barring outright hyperinflation, devaluation of the dollar shouldn't be a problem for those who use it as a unit to denominate cash flows, although some people might get squeezed if their contracts with their customers are of longer duration than their contracts with their suppliers. The people who will lose money in a devaluation are those who hold balances. Which means central banks, basically.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jul 17th, 2010 at 10:31:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or the Saudis could directly trade oil for wheat.  

Currencies make it a damn sight easier to trade but they aren't necessary for trade.

by ATinNM on Sat Jul 17th, 2010 at 11:25:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But almost all of the relationships that compose the institutional framework necessary for transcontinental trade involve large numbers of relationships that make reference to currency. Re-casting those relationships in terms that obviate the need for currencies will often involve renegotiating the entire relationship. Do this to a large enough fraction (in a short enough span of time) of the relationships that make up the institutional framework necessary for trade and that entire institutional framework risks going belly-up.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 09:34:02 AM EST
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