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I'm not too worried about Obama's re-election prospects - at this stage.  I'm more worried about whether he will be able to do anything while in office if the GOP take back Congress this fall.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sat Jul 17th, 2010 at 07:46:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this point I don't see the GOP taking control of the House.  They'd have to pick-up 40 seats and that's ridiculous.  10 seats are needed for them to gain control of the Senate and that's almost as absurd - and they've blown Florida already - which they had in the bag - and Kentucky is hanging on the ropes.

To be in power a party has to be able to cobble a coalition together.  The GOP is in the middle of a faction fight and the Tea Baggers and Conservatives are winning.  The can't ride to power based solely on that political block; they need moderates.  We're starting to see alarm in the GOP camp as evidenced by a Dana Milbank article The tea party makes trouble with a capital T.

If the GOP heads into the election running Tea Bagger candidates, using Tea Bagger rhetoric, they aren't going anywhere.  

by ATinNM on Sat Jul 17th, 2010 at 08:28:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Assuming a steady supply of electricity, this post should remain in the archives for exhumation and comment come November.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 04:17:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Political winds can be very intermittent, and the difference with political power is that it doesn't flow regardless of wind direction.  The current direction may well presage huge GOP gains, but both ATinNM and I seem to be of the opinion that:

  1. The wind is not strong enough to achieve a GOP majority, and

  2. It may well yet change direction before November - or at least calm to the point of generating very little alternate political power...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 04:38:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
40 seats in Congress is possible in a strong wave election.  10 in the Senate would need a Tsunami.  I see the greater likelihood of an ebbing pro Obama tide exposing Dems in vulnerable seats - mitigated (in part) by long term demographic trends...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jul 18th, 2010 at 04:45:08 AM EST
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