Second, even if the subs win, you still don't control the SLOC's. You just deny them to the enemy.
If you don't believe me, send in your merchantmen and watch as land-based (and carrier-based) fighters, long-range bombers, missile armed fast attack crafts and enemy submarines close on them. Not pretty. You need your own ASW and AA (and ASh) bubble around your convoys of merchantmen. You only get that from capital ships, or a plentiful base network. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
