It would be insane for China to challenge the US militarily, but neither is China helpless because of the USA's great military power. In many ways it could be said that China is the greatest free rider of all on US military power. Even in Afghanistan the US provides the security, however poorly, and China makes off with many of the richest mineral deposits.

China's government has the great advantage of being able to conduct policy without particular regard for popular sentiment, and can always play the Chinese nationalism and Han exceptionalism cards to good effect. And they have the advantage of powerful cultural traditions that, well played, bolster the government -- so long as the economy keeps working.

Something from the I Ching relevant to the US-China relation comes to mind:

The Taming Power of the Small

"The yielding obtains the decisive place, and those above and those below correspond with it: this is called THE TAMING POWER OF THE SMALL."*

Subtle and inscrutable these Chinese. The Book of Changes is thought to have taken shape in the centuries before Confucius and is basic to Chinese culture and habits of mind. China will play to its own advantages, which are considerable, when it can, while accommodating US advantages where it must.

For now probably advantage China. They have the currency reserves, a growing economy and the ability to conduct foreign policy strategically, even if they play by US rules. Meanwhile the USA is run by a cabal of pirates and is constrained to act and react according to the short term needs of that constituency. The Chinese undoubtedly think us to be barbaric fools, even if dangerous and powerful fools.

Time will tell just how valuable our military power is in this relationship. But we cannot readily use it to immediately get whatever we want. Most frustrating.

*From the Wilhelm/Baynes translation, Princeton, 1961

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."