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Hmmmm....that was then and this is now.

I think that in the emerging modern networked "Economy 3.0" as I like to call it, firstly the financial economy has become a multiple of the 'real world' economy, and secondly markets are able to take alternate routes to bypass the former controlling nodes.

So even though a power may exercise physical hegemony and a veto power over physical trade movements, the financial markets have evolved in a way that even the mightiest physical hegemony no longer confers a veto over movements of money and capital.

We are now in a bipolar world with China now having a de facto economic veto power, and IMHO they have probably exercised it in their 'red line' area - which is just the same as that of the US - ie Energy Security.

 

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 02:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would argue the opposite.  Economy 3.0 is even more dependent upon an empire-like power than investment and commerce in less network-dependent economies of the past. And it has nothing to do with physical manifestations of power or resources.  It has to do with who is capable of making and enforcing rules because Economy 3.0, as you have described, is even more dependent rules and norms than less networked economies are.  Networks make trust and counter-party risk a much bigger factor in human relationships, which gives even more power than ever to those who can can credibly threaten to destroy nodes of trust as well as to those who can defend them.  
by santiago on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 06:43:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The key term here is "credible." The threat of destroying critical nodes in the system isn't credible if those who make the threat depend on the system for their own comfort and convenience.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 07:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's true, but for all the growth potential in P2P ways of doing things, I see two groups who are never particularly dependent on an approach to relationships based on dispersed networks: political/military authorities and outlaws/outcasts, such as terrorists or insurgents.  Both of those groups stand to gain power, not lose it, if networks collapse, even if some of their capabilities for doing things are compromised because of the loss of networks and P2P benefits.  In crises, the people with guns and centralized authority gain power, not the people who manage individual, trust-based relationships, and this means that there is an inherent instability in a network-based economy sans the hard power of a strong state apparatus.  The guys with guns, protectors as well as enemies, have strong incentives to never let economy 3.0 to ever become too widespread. And who can stop them?
by santiago on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 11:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are assuming that the people with guns cannot be bought.

The catch is that you don't need to keep buying them forever. You only need to keep buying them until the networked system has existed for so long that the previous system has atrophied sufficiently to make the ability to obtain a larger slice of the cake at the cost of diminishing the cake a losing proposition.

Why would people engage in an activity that so obviously undermines their power in the long term? Because people don't think long-term, particularly psychopaths.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jul 26th, 2010 at 08:49:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm neither assuming they can't be bought, or that they will always use force instead of mutually beneficial exchange. Instead I'm suggesting that people engage in coercion strategically, and that such opportunities make concentrations of power necessary to protect a system such as an economy or any network of relationships.
by santiago on Wed Jul 28th, 2010 at 01:51:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
santiago:
 Economy 3.0 is even more dependent upon an empire-like power than investment and commerce in less network-dependent economies of the past. And it has nothing to do with physical manifestations of power or resources.  It has to do with who is capable of making and enforcing rules because Economy 3.0, as you have described, is even more dependent rules and norms than less networked economies are.  

I completely disagree.

Economy 3.0 is what makes empires impossible: the Internet interprets hegemons as damage and routes around them.

A would be hegemon may be able to dominate any one or any half dozen nations, but cannot dominate more than a few of the nodes all of the time.

Interactive partnership-based protocols are key to Economy 3.0: these agreements - eg international trade agreements cofigured around transaction repositories - will act like a form of legal XML linking disparate jurisdictions and legal entities together, rather than disparate hardware and software.

Law is Code.

We are seeing the end of one way, statutory or judge-made protocols - 'contrats de mandat' as the French have it - and a transition to 'contrats de societe'. These are the same sort of two way protocols you find in Japan, and elsewhere in the East, and also the consensual approach of Islamic jurisprudence, which many think underpinned the Napoleonic code.

A hegemon would simply find themselves excluded from participation at worst, or participating on inferior terms, at best.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 08:01:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can't exclude the wannabe hegemon - if you try, he starts blowing shit up, and you can't afford that.

The point of a hegemony-resistant architecture is to make sure that wannabe hegemons can't exclude other actors without imperilling the core function of the system. Mutually assured destruction works, most of the time.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 08:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are separating the concept of power from law, and thus from your concept of code. This means you are essentially making the same mistake that neoclassical economics does -- assuming that people prefer to engage in mutually beneficial relationships instead of coercive relationships if both options are available. Not even worrying about hegemons, just strong states, or strong military/political authorities are necessary for the widespread adoptions of micro-level, trust based relationships. Why? Because the guy with the gun, or the car bomb, or the army, or the virus, or whatever, has a lot more power to gain by destroying people's trust in one another, i.e., corrupting the code, than he does by leaving it be.  To me, Economy 3.0 seems to be inherently unstable which means it can't happen without the supportive authority of a strong state/military sponsor, just like trade, investment, migration, or any other aspect of globalization need such a sponsor.
by santiago on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 11:51:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If people always choose coercive relationships - which is nonsense anyway, although it seems to be a given among people who believe they're important enough to decide policy for everyone else - then a stable hegemony is impossible by definition.

Historically, there's never been any such thing. At best, relative stability is maintained by cripplingly expensive wars until the economy implodes and the wars are no longer affordable.

Ethically and practically, mutually beneficial relationships are vastly more productive and stable for everyone except the psychotic predator class who would rather cover themselves with scraps and baubles than allow a peace dividend to grow the world economy.

It's self-styled 'realists' who are the biggest brake on progress and innovation.

Not everyone wants to remain a stupid rat chasing other stupid rats for scraps around a barrel. Some of us have more interesting plans.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 26th, 2010 at 03:50:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No one here is arguing that hegemony is stable.
by santiago on Tue Jul 27th, 2010 at 10:41:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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