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Under these wildly optimistic assumptions, it would still take seven to eight iterations, or between 1½ and 2½ years at 10 and 15 weeks per iteration, respectively, to replace the full productive power of China. During which time we would essentially be operating a wartime economy.

On that timescale, it would be a great way to get out of the depression. After all, we're starting out from a recession so there is slack that could come online faster.

However, we've become more adept at liquidating plant so some of the redundant plan may already have been dismantled.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jul 29th, 2010 at 04:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A service in our new service economies is dismantling, crating and shipping plant to South Asia where it will be reassembled for industrial use. I can't supply references, but I have come across such a service company carrying out a contract not far from here. The factory, in the textile sector, was closed, the employees laid off, and the plant shipped off. Not to China, but to Laos (or it could have been Viet Nam, Thailand...). The service company has done this job for several clients in the area, where the textile industry has all but shut down.

Another, though cruder and more risky, closing-down trick was arson. Burn the factory down (with consequent damage to machinery) and collect on the insurance (if you can). This one has gone out of favour as the insurance companies started looking seriously at what was going on.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jul 29th, 2010 at 04:23:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But under our current dysfunctional financial system, cutting off China would make the going concerns who are supposed to rebuild the capacity at home under your scheme even more insolvent than they already are, since they would lose their Chinese assets without being able to default on their liabilities with domestic financial institutions in a non-disruptive manner.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jul 29th, 2010 at 04:31:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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