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First of all, Merkel is in Beijing as we speak being praised by Wen Jiabao and complaining about market access for German firms.

Second of all, German bondholders would be more than happy to sell their Spanish bond holdings to China.

In this connection, remember the nightmare of a balanced budget

A decision was taken recently in Berlin to introduce a balanced-budget law in the German constitution. It was a hugely important decision. It may not have received due attention outside Germany given the flood of other economic and financial news. From 2016, it will be illegal for the federal government to run a deficit of more than 0.35 per cent of gross domestic product. From 2020, the federal states will not be allowed to run any deficit at all. Unlike Europe's stability and growth pact, which was first circumvented, later softened and then ignored, this unilateral constitutional law will stick. I would expect that for the next 20 or 30 years, deficit reduction will be the first, second and third priority of German economic policy.
Münchau and other economists predict that the German bond market is going to evaporate in a few years' time
What is the rationale for such a decision? It cannot be economic, for there is no rule in economics to suggest that zero is the correct level of debt, which is what a balanced budget would effectively imply in the very long run. The optimal debt-to-GDP ratio might be lower for Germany than for some other countries, but it surely is not zero.
So maybe Germany will be happy that the Chinese will be lending money to the rest of the Eurozone to buy German products.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 19th, 2010 at 12:44:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the US, 49 states with balanced budget amendments does not mean the abolition of state bonds. What it means is capital budgeting, with the budget required to be balanced on current spending and capital service.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jul 20th, 2010 at 01:59:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which leads to all kinds of creative accounting.  There's also public debt for private purposes -- another fun one.

Asdf is probably familiar with this, as Colorado is one of the more amusing offenders (and if you listen closely, all the way from Ohio you can still hear my former colleague shouting, "How can you report no fucking debt?!?!").

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Jul 20th, 2010 at 04:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both the Euro's Stability and Growth (Suicide) Pact and Gordon Brown's onw fiscal "golden rule" have led to creative accounting over the past 10 years... PPP/PFI is the form of "public debt for private purposes" we like here in Europe...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 20th, 2010 at 05:08:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least for a given value of "we". And of "like".

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 01:57:07 PM EST
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