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I tend to agree that new manufacturing could be ramped up quickly, but I cannot see how the current system can possibly have any stable equilibrium. Instead, it seems to me most likely that we are rapidly heading for a massive financial disequilibrium that will require the sort of response that will not be possible while retaining the nature and structure of the present elite and their system.

The current system consists of a pack of sociopaths in suits with the habits of pirates seeking every opportunity to loot and pillage. They and the way they operate take no account of the need for anything but their own immediate returns, which are now only obtainable through organized fraud enabled by their capture and domination of the political process. This is unstable and will crash just as surely as the economy of ancient Rome collapsed when overrun by Goths and Vandals. The pirate elite has no interest in the boring tasks required to run a sustainable society. That is why we don't have one.

Many superior forms of organization are possible, but so are vastly inferior forms of organization. I can only hope that some of those with position and power have the vision to want to secure a livable world and a decent society for their children and grandchildren.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 01:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not talking about a system or stable equilibrium in the general sense here.  I'm just saying that the strategic options available to leaders of states like China provide an equilibrium, in the game theory sense of the word, because China cannot improve itself through any option other than submission to the current world regime of rules on trade, commerce, and finance if it wants to continue to grow.  It can't opt out of trade with the US and EU, which means it cannot contest power with the US militarily.  
by santiago on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 08:53:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From this statement
It can't opt out of trade with the US and EU

does not necessary follows that
which means it cannot contest power with the US militarily

in other words proof, please.

China cannot improve itself through any option other than submission to the current world regime of rules on trade, commerce, and finance

From this statement we learn that China wish to improve itself without submission to Western narrated "rules".

Proof, please.

by FarEasterner on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 01:44:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This sis of course only under the condition that the Chinese won't strongly expand their navy. Which they are actually doing. At a faster pace than their economy is growing, IIRC.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 04:31:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia:
The future fleet of conventional Chinese submarines is a deadly quiet force that could perform defensive and offensive operations. The future fleet will compose of the Kilo, Song and Yuan types, as the Romeos and Mings are phased out of service. China is reported to have the option of purchasing the more advanced Russian Amur class SSK. With the success of indigenous programmes, however, future purchases of foreign submarines look relatively unlikely.


By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 05:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that China wants to be able to blockade Taiwan aint no surprise. What we should keep our eyes and ears open for is any news about Chinese capital ships, to secure SLOC's.

Like the ones the Koreans and Japanese are building.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 05:11:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why?

Take a capital ship that you don't like.

Then take a moderately modern spy satellite.

Then take four dozen submarines.

Launch five hundred cruise missiles over the horizon.

Watch as ten million man hours, five thousand sailors and pilots and a hundred thousand tons of high-grade steel sinks helplessly to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean.

Dive, scatter and lose the counter-sub task force dispatched to hunt you down.

Repeat as necessary. They can get twenty of your subs for each capital ship you take out and you still come out ahead in terms of steel, man-hours and trained sailors.

Watch your capital be reduced to radioactive glass about forty-five minutes after the first capital ship gets an impromptu U-boat makeover.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 06:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First, it boils down to how effective subs are vs ASW vessels, and how effective the anti-missile systems are. No one knows this, because there hasn't been any serious naval warfare since WW2, with the exception of the Falklands war, which for several reasons actually told us less than one might imagine.

Second, even if the subs win, you still don't control the SLOC's. You just deny them to the enemy.

If you don't believe me, send in your merchantmen and watch as land-based (and carrier-based) fighters, long-range bombers, missile armed fast attack crafts and enemy submarines close on them. Not pretty. You need your own ASW and AA (and ASh) bubble around your convoys of merchantmen. You only get that from capital ships, or a plentiful base network.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 07:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I might add that with "capital ship", I'm not just referring to carriers, but to guided missile destroyers/cruisers and the like as well.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 07:23:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting article to your attention on American-Russian-Chinese triangle:

The Moscow Times: Tangled Triangle of Russia, China and the U.S.

recently .. former high-ranking Pentagon official.. made a special trip to Moscow to warn us about an increasingly powerful China. The "Chinese dragon," he said, has large ambitions and will try to dominate the world. He hinted at the need for Washington and Moscow to close ranks and start preparing for a joint defense against Chinese political and economic expansion.

... Reveling in its victory in the Cold War and its clear military, political and economic superiority, the United States set its sights on global hegemony. This antagonized and alienated both Moscow and Beijing and created an opportunity for them to join forces once again to oppose U.S. hegemony.

The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks marked the beginning of the end of U.S. global domination. The U.S. fall from the stars was accelerated by its unsuccessful, taxing military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq and the deep economic crisis.

By 2009, it became obvious that the "Pax Americana" global empire was a pipe dream, and the United States -- now under the leadership of a more pragmatic and realistic President Barack Obama -- began looking for new alliances. One of the Obama administration's ideas was sharing the burden of responsibility for global security with China...

In February 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proposed creating a U.S.-Chinese superpower alliance... But the Chinese leadership flatly rejected Clinton's proposal. ...China has always insisted that it has no ambitions to become a hegemony and is opposed to any global domination by any superpower.
...This is why many U.S. policymakers view China as the country's largest threat.

How can the United States counter this threat? ... once again, Washington has courted Moscow to help the United States counterbalance China's growing global influence. But the United States doesn't realize that Russia has no interest in alienating China.

Eighteenth-century French philosopher Charles de Montesquieu said, "Small counties perish from external enemies, and large countries perish from internal ones." Russia has more than enough internal problems that it needs to solve without having to worry about conflicts with China. This is why ... the Russian-Chinese-U.S. triangle will remain as three separate centers for a long time to come.

by FarEasterner on Wed Jul 21st, 2010 at 05:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US does its best to alienate the EU from Russia and Russia from China in order to preserve its hegemony. I don't think the EU, Russia or China are concerned with hegemony but, in Chomsky's dychotomy, survival. So the US can scaremonger and drive wedges all they want but I don't think it will work.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jul 22nd, 2010 at 04:18:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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