Without Chinese trade, the non-Chinese world doesn't really need Chinese steel or Chinese ships. Except that if they want to buy the stuff from other people, they need ships. And if they want to make the stuff themselves, they need steel.
Except that if they want to buy the stuff from other people, they need ships. And if they want to make the stuff themselves, they need steel.
A year? Two years? Ten years?
Any of those answers will mean that simply embargoing China is off the table. You'd have to do something a lot more gradual. And if you do something a lot more gradual, then China has time to respond, and you start entering a regime where predictions become hard to do...
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
When it's not oppressing peasants in its own back yard, The US starts wars to increase its perceived mojo and to feel good about its own awesome, not for practical reasons. It also runs the world's biggest war machine as a convenient excuse for corporate welfare, not as a form of military effectiveness, the latter being incredibly limited in practical terms.
Both China and the US have nukes, and if hostilities start over - say - resource access in Afghanistan, it won't be long before they're used.
China is already in a position to crush the US financially. The Chinese leadership have chosen not to, so far, but if the US economy implodes - which is looking almost certain - the Chinese will decide that it's self defence to secure energy and other resources around the world, and the US will twitch and spasm like a moron giant, especially if the US has one of its idiot presidents in charge.
The point is that politically and militarily, the US is no longer viable. It's running on empty and hasn't realised this yet.
The best that can happen is sovereign default and economic reorganisation. But with an idiot president at the helm, conflict to save face is more likely.
When it's not oppressing peasants in its own back yard, The US starts wars to increase its perceived mojo and to feel good about its own awesome, not for practical reasons.
But it is also very careful to only start war against countries that don't have a sporting chance of fighting back.
The whole starting war against countries that actually have a military (or any economy worth speaking of) is a European thing, historically speaking at least.
Which is the real reason that China will back down over a confrontation - you don't play chicken with a psychopath. But this should not be mistaken as the psychopath having the strategic advantage in any other avenue of engagement than a game of nuclear chicken.
But with an idiot president at the helm
