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There are economists that know what they're doing, are aware if its limitations and are honest about them. Such as Steve Keen
This next view shows 3 of those dimensions (excluding government spending), and the 2 dimensional view of the previous simulation is shown as a shadow below the 3D shape):

So the output of non-equilibrium models can be "pretty"-it's just the picture they craft of capitalism that isn't pretty.
And then there are ignorant, blind or dishonest forecasters.

In the long term, economists may be reliable as long as they don't try to pretend they can forecast sharply. Like weathermen.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jul 22nd, 2010 at 10:21:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Extrapolating from the tiny downward slope in July might be more accurate.

The upward slope is good comedy - I presume it's unintentional, but it's not always easy to tell.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jul 22nd, 2010 at 10:27:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then again, the July figures might be a reflection of the end of the employment intensive part of the Census.  So I'm inclined to say that things have been shit for a while, never really got better, and that it remains to be seen whether the pulling of stimulus will only result in stagnation or kickstart us into another round of economic freefall.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Jul 22nd, 2010 at 10:31:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When combined with AusterityTM in Europe my bets are that "the pulling of stimulus will only result in stagnation or kickstart us into another round of economic freefall. Only from a purely domestic point of view and for only the German economy could AusterityTM be justified, and they have already been on that diet for several years. And we have not dealt with bad mortgage debt. The only way not dealing with mortgage debt could be sustainable in the long run would be for the world economy to boom, and even then it would likely be necessary to re-inflate the real estate bubble. As real estate continues to drop the debt overhang will continue to produce crises. Or is there something fundamental I am missing?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 23rd, 2010 at 02:00:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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