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Economics and Politics - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
In the figure below, I show an index of eurozone real GDP, from Eurostat, with 2007 fourth quarter -- a quarter in which Europe was doing OK, but certainly not experiencing inflationary overheating -- set at 100. And I compared it with a trend assuming 2 percent annual growth in potential output, a fairly conservative assumption even for Europe. Here's what it looks like:

Eurostat, author's estimate

So a huge gap has opened up between a reasonable estimate of potential output and actual output. Even if you believe that growth in Europe has picked up since the first quarter -- and that the pickup will continue -- it will take years to close that gap.



"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Sat Jul 24th, 2010 at 05:46:37 PM EST
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Correct Link:
Europe's Gap - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 04:15:09 AM EST
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