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Calculated Risk: Part 5B. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? More Things Can Go Badly: Credit Default Swaps, Interest Swaps and Options, Foreign Exchange
CR Note: This series is from reader "some investor guy".

  • Part 1: How Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?

  • Part 2. How Often Have Sovereign Countries Defaulted in the Past?

  • Part 2B: More on Historic Sovereign Default Research

  • Part 3. What are the Market Estimates of the Probabilities of Default?

  • Part 4. What are Total Estimated Losses on Sovereign Bonds Due to Default?

  • Part 5A. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? $15 Trillion of Sovereign Debt in Default

    In Part 5A, I showed a Really Bad scenario consistent with some very bad historic default rates for sovereign debt. That produced an estimate of $15.3 trillion of defaulted sovereign debt, with $7.5 to $10.5 trillion of losses.

    In today's post, we look at the effects of sovereign default on credit default swaps, interest rate swaps and options, and currency exchange contracts.


  • "Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
    by Melanchthon on Sat Jul 24th, 2010 at 05:50:10 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I am am not an economist </disclaimer>, but envisioning a dozen countries defaulting on their sovereign debt and then Japan (yes, Japan) defaulting too, and this without ever considering the UK nor the USA getting into similar debt trouble, strikes me as a little bizarre, in the All's-quiet-on-the Western-Front category.

    Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
    by Bernard on Sun Jul 25th, 2010 at 06:29:52 AM EST
    [ Parent ]

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