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A: Cheap and abundant. - Ideally, cheaper than it is now! Remember, using resistance heaters with clean power is better than having a gas furnace, despite being an insanely wasteful use of electricity, and not everyone can use heat pumps. B: carbon free and clean. C: Demand and supply curves match up somehow without wrecking points A. or B - This means no gas fired peakers, and it means that any energy storage systems you include must cost less than your generating scheme. If you mean to solve it via overbuild and just wasting the surplus power, again, this cost needs counting.
This is a very tall order. In my judgement, it is, in fact, not possible to get there with renewables. A europe wide grid linking wind would still have large variations in output not linked in any way with demand swings. It might be possible with nuclear and pumped storage, since the maximum storage capacity needed is what you need to cover day/night variation, but this is still going to add some to those costs listed. The ideal solution would, naturally, for the extra electricity consumed in the process of "Electrify those bits of our economy not currently on the grid" were to fall overwhelmingly during the night, so that we end up with a much, much flatter demand curve. - This, however, would require the wide adoption of, oh, electric cars that do not need recharging during the day in normal use. (if people charge their cars at night + while they are at work, that doesnt help. the battery really needs to last all day in normal use. )
This argument also assumes there is no Connie Mae institution financing the capitalized savings of energy saving capital spending at subsidized terms (where it may be noted that this financial subsidy could easily be provided by a portion of a carbon fee while still recycling a majority of carbon fee payments as social dividend). I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Remember, using resistance heaters with clean power is better than having a gas furnace, despite being an insanely wasteful use of electricity, and not everyone can use heat pumps.
In a (part-)nuclear grid, central heating can obviate this requirement.
For that matter, there is no good reason why we have to replace all current uses of fossil fuels with electricity: Heating requirements can be wholly obviated via appropriate architecture, even in Northern Finland in the winter; the need for transportation can be greatly abridged with improved city planning and settlement patterns; shipping can, for all non-perishable commodities, be powered by sail. The only major uses of fossil fuels I can think of off-hand are air travel (which will need to be replaced by trains and ships), industrial heat sources like furnaces and electricity generation for existing electricity demand.
This will kill the suburbs and radically alter the rural areas, of course. But our way of life is negotiable - the laws of physics are not.
- Jake Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.
What's really interesting is that Swedish power consumption has been pretty flat since 1985 (when the latest nukes came online), but the amount of electrical heating has steadily fallen, after the initial surge in use.
Essentially, the growth in power demand due to economic growth has been hidden by the constant draw-down of electric heaters. Now that that low value-added use of power has more or less been phased out, new generating capacity will be needed to fuel future economic growth.
The idea that the linkage in growth in GDP and power consumption in Sweden has been fundamentally broken, is going to be shown to be an empty shell. This means the projected power surplus of the future will fail to materialise.
Did I mention it would be totally cool to make a study where one can try to falsify this hypothesis? ;) Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
If you are interested in trying to make such a study, I would guess this institution might be interested:
Chalmers: Energi och miljö: Fysisk resursteori
På avdelningen för fysisk resursteori bedriver vi tvärvetenskaplig forskning och utbildning inom områden som hållbar utveckling, energisystem i ett klimatperspektiv, industriell ekologi samt komplexa system.
I don't think anyone foresees a wind-only renewables future. Other renewables have to mature.
It might be possible with nuclear and pumped storage
With pumped storage, anything is possible.
Question: do you mean only or mostly pumped hydro? If yes, have you ever calculated what the capacity needs of all of the EU translate to in physical parameters? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
A europe wide grid linking wind would still have large variations in output not linked in any way with demand swings.
And of course, a europe wide grid linking wind would also be a europe wide grid crossing multiple time zones spreading peaks in CSP power availability.
Putting individual sustainable production technologies in 20th century silos will always make the challenges look harder than pooling them into a diverse portfolio. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
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