Display:
I agree with Helen, given the hammering AV will take from the newspapers, it's hard to see how it will pass.

Given that - do you Gary have views on the practical effect of the change to constituencies..? I haven't had time to examine the effects on FPTP.

(Obviously, if I'm wrong and AV goes through, the changes to constituencies are much less predictable in effect.)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Aug 28th, 2010 at 02:59:04 PM EST
It is impossible to make precise estimates, until the new boundaries have been drawn up.

The expectation is that equalising electorate sizes will benefit the Conservatives by reducing the systematic bias to Labour in the system. It is also thought it may make it a bit harder for Lib Dems and others to win seats, but that may be more Tory wishful thinking than what would really happen, as I have not seen any academic research on the point.

The aspects of bias which will be corrected, in the new  system, result from Welsh seats and urban seats generally having tended to have smaller electorates. Before 2005 this also applied to Scottish constituencies. All the areas involved are more Labour inclined than the average British seat.

The other source of bias, that Labour voters are more efficiently distributed to maximise seat victories, is inherant in the single member constituency system. That bias can only be corrected by proportional representation.

by Gary J on Sun Aug 29th, 2010 at 04:53:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series