Moventus Says Otherwise
Moventus is at the head of the quality gearbox queue for wind turbines, and one of the three top global suppliers. This negative news from them has me rethinking my perception of where we are as an industry.
On Tuesday 24 August Moventas announced negotiations with staff in Jyväskylä, with the aim of shedding 150 man-years. The cut in man-years will not directly translate into 150 redundancies. At the moment, Moventas's wind power business employs more than 600 people, some of whom in turn have been temporarily laid off since April of last year. "We were picking up new customers as recently as the spring, but during July-August we've received a lot of negative messages, and some customers have tried to cancel orders. We won't be able to offer full employment to our entire staff for the next year," Jäämaa predicts.
At the moment, Moventas's wind power business employs more than 600 people, some of whom in turn have been temporarily laid off since April of last year.
"We were picking up new customers as recently as the spring, but during July-August we've received a lot of negative messages, and some customers have tried to cancel orders. We won't be able to offer full employment to our entire staff for the next year," Jäämaa predicts.
This is the worst bit of news i've seen in the industry for some time. Perhaps it's just for Moventus' sphere in the industry, but it's very recent, and is at least a marker.
The offshore wind industry is certainly a separate market, this news is for the far larger onshore sector. At the very least, it means that we're now reaping the hesitating energy policies of the cowards who are in power.
The energy prices with which our industry must compete have always been artificially low, as externalities, though computed relatively accurately, are not included. So in addition to our market being skewed anyway, we are now dealing with the likelihood that financial decisions more focused on short term survival in meltdown stage two are drawing funds from the global onshore wind industry.
As this industry is an absolutely key sector of hint of recovery, this is a canary in the coal mine warning.
For example, the US looks to drop some 30% or more from last year. Last year i was almost the only analyst to correctly predict US growth, this year i'm still in the dark, despite the lateness. The sign from Moventus was not expected, and is a strong predictor.
In this comment I will not go into the passed ball (own goal) by the Obama admin, chalking it up to the US being owned already. Though the US is a large sector of the global market, it is only one sector, This news is not healthy.
This is where the accent should be... "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
While i've heard rumblings, this public news shocks me. Coming as it does on the troubles of market 2nd Hansen. I would like to be at a Winergy strategy session tonight. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Talking to an expert in the stainless steel industry, he pointed out that China has been very competitive on price, but very unreliable on quality. There are many types of stainless, and design and production engineers need to know that any batch conforms exactly to specs for the type. It is on this info that they base their calculations for load-bearing, ductability, fireproofness etc etc, some of which are critical.
I'm sure that China will get the concept of quality control right in the future - but for now? You can't be me, I'm taken
