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FT.com / Markets / Insight - Cautionary tale about exit strategies from 1930s Japan
As the policy debate intensifies, investors might spare a thought for Takahashi Korekiyo, Bank of Japan governor from 1911 to 1913. He also served as finance minister and prime minister in the 1920s and 1930s.
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However, in December 1931, Takahashi returned to the job of finance minister... A Keynsian by instinct Koreyiko reversed the tough, deflationary stance of his predecessor and fought recession with massive stimulus: he abandoned the gold standard, loosened credit conditions and raised public spending, financed with new debt.In some ways, it worked
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But Takahashi encountered two problems... tensions continued to rise, partly because the large conglomerates, or zaibatsu, were the biggest winners from stimulus. Mitsui, for example, made millions of dollars from currency trading as Japan left the gold standard...

Second, and unsurprisingly, the spending bonanza undermined confidence in Japan's government debt and its currency, creating fragility.

So in 1936, Takahashi embarked on an exit strategy, cutting public spending and tightening monetary policy.

From a macroeconomic perspective, it made sense. But it cost Takahashi his life. As political tensions exploded, he was assassinated by rogue army officers who were furious at - among other things - the military spending cuts. That triggered a slide towards militarism, wild public spending and hyperinflation.



"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Fri Sep 3rd, 2010 at 05:00:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Second, and unsurprisingly, the spending bonanza undermined confidence in Japan's government debt and its currency, creating fragility.

What does that even mean?

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.

by generic on Fri Sep 3rd, 2010 at 11:39:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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